GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
11 / 100
LOW1 day 2 · 7 day 2
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Houthis take Yemen: GERI 11 | Energy Risk Oct 4 — October 04, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 11 (LOW) on 2026-10-03. The brief covers 16 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 11; 1-day change: 2.
- 16 alerts considered from 2026-10-03.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€74.55/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-10-02
VIX
15.31 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-10-02
Brent Crude
$102.61/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-10-02
EUR/USD
1.1257 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-10-02
EU Gas Storage
72.20%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-10-03
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Current Regime: Low risk environment maintained despite geopolitical escalations.
- Contagion Status: Moderate regional contagion risk, primarily Middle East to global energy markets.
- Key Drivers: Sharp escalation in Middle East conflict (Houthis attacks on Saudi Arabia), renewed Russian strikes in Ukraine, and warnings to diplomats increase geopolitical tension but have yet to trigger broad market volatility.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 11
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: Houthis’ missile strikes near Riyadh and attacks on oil facilities increase risk premium on Saudi crude, pressuring Brent prices and global supply security.
- Black Sea → Europe: Russian missile strikes on Kyiv and infrastructure heighten European energy security concerns but have limited immediate impact on gas prices or storage levels.
- Europe → FX Markets: EUR/USD depreciation (-0.62%) reflects risk-off sentiment amid regional conflicts and energy uncertainty.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €74.55/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 15.31 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $102.61/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1257 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 72.20% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: GERI up by +2 points, but Brent crude and TTF gas prices remain flat or slightly down, indicating a lag in risk premium transmission to physical markets.
- Volatility (VIX) declines despite geopolitical alerts, suggesting market complacency or expectation of limited escalation impact on global energy supply.
- EUR/USD weakening aligns with risk sentiment but is more pronounced than energy price moves, signaling FX markets are more sensitive to geopolitical risk than commodity markets currently.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk tone, the recent surge in high-severity missile strikes in the Middle East, particularly targeting Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure near Riyadh, has incrementally raised global energy risk indices. However, physical energy markets have yet to fully price in these risks, as evidenced by stable Brent crude and TTF gas prices and declining equity volatility. This divergence suggests markets may be underestimating the potential for supply disruptions or are banking on containment of the conflict. The European energy system remains supported by robust gas storage, mitigating immediate price shocks from the Black Sea conflict escalation. Traders should monitor the frequency and impact of Middle East strikes closely, as a breach of critical infrastructure or chokepoints could rapidly shift the risk regime and energy price dynamics. The EUR/USD depreciation signals increased risk aversion in FX markets, which may precede broader market repricing if geopolitical tensions intensify.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.00% between recorded quotes; GERI 9 → 11. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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