GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
13 / 100
LOW1 day 2 · 7 day 4
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Drewry: Intra Asia: GERI 13 | Energy Risk Oct 5 — October 05, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 13 (LOW) on 2026-10-04. The brief covers 17 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 13; 1-day change: 2.
- 17 alerts considered from 2026-10-04.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€75.75/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-10-02
VIX
15.31 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-10-02
Brent Crude
$101.87/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-10-02
EUR/USD
1.1257 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-10-02
EU Gas Storage
72.40%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-10-04
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drewry: Intra Asia Container Index Up 2% Last Week | 5 | 3.7% | Hellenic Shipping News — Shipping |
| Latam’s oil trade is being rerouted by the Middle East crisis | 5 | 3.7% | Hellenic Shipping News — Shipping |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low, despite multiple high-severity alerts (all 5/5) related to Middle East conflict and energy supply disruptions.
- Regime: Transitional, no fixed regime currently identified by algorithms.
- Contagion Status: Moderate cross-regional tension with potential contagion from Middle East war risks into European energy markets.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 13
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: High-risk spillover via energy trade routes; Latam oil rerouting affects European supply chains.
- Middle East → Global Shipping: Drewry container index up 2% signals rising intra-Asia supply chain friction, likely exacerbated by Middle East instability.
- Europe → Global: Russian attacks on Ukrainian power grids increase European energy insecurity, potentially pressuring global markets.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €75.75/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 15.31 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $101.87/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1257 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 72.40% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Brent Crude: Brent’s slight decline (-0.72%) contrasts with high alert levels, indicating market may be anticipating containment or offsetting factors such as OPEC+ monitoring.
- TTF Gas vs EERI: TTF gas price rise (Locked — free account) aligns with elevated EERI (Locked — free account), confirming market pricing of European energy risks.
- VIX vs GERI: VIX decline despite GERI increase suggests equities are discounting geopolitical risk, possibly due to low overall risk tone.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ Custom Algorithms identify a low overall risk tone despite multiple severe alerts, reflecting market expectations of containment or offsetting factors such as OPEC+ vigilance and EU gas storage resilience. However, the sustained Middle East conflict and European energy vulnerabilities create a non-negligible risk of escalation, particularly impacting Brent crude and TTF gas prices. Traders should monitor the divergence between risk signals and market pricing, especially Brent’s muted response versus heightened Middle East tensions. The probability of regime shift to elevated risk remains material (~35%) and warrants hedging strategies in energy commodities and European power sectors. Supply chain disruptions in Asia add a layer of complexity, potentially amplifying industrial cost pressures globally.
---
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.72% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.61% between recorded quotes; GERI 11 → 13. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.