GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
9 / 100
LOW1 day 1 · 7 day -1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Widening Gap On: GERI 9 | Energy Risk Oct 3 — October 03, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 9 (LOW) on 2026-10-02. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 9; 1-day change: 1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-10-02.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€74.55/MWh
+1.71%
Source date: 2026-10-02
VIX
15.31 points
-1.08 points
Source date: 2026-10-02
Brent Crude
$102.61/bbl
+0.12%
Source date: 2026-10-02
EUR/USD
1.1257 USD/EUR
-0.62%
Source date: 2026-10-02
EU Gas Storage
72.00%
+0.50 pp
Source date: 2026-10-02
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Widening Gap On Green Goals | 5 | 20.2% | Hellenic Shipping News — Shipping |
| U.S. urges Europe to ‘immediately’ release diesel reserves as Iran war fuels record prices | 5 | 26.7% | Hellenic Shipping News — Oil & Energy |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low, with GERI at 9 (+1) indicating slight uptick in geopolitical energy risk.
- Contagion Status: Stable; EERI unchanged at Locked — free account, suggesting regional energy risk remains steady despite global tensions.
- Volatility: VIX down 1.08% to 15.31, reflecting subdued equity market stress.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 9
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Europe: High war-driven risk due to Russian missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid and Iran-related supply disruptions.
- Black Sea: Direct impact from strikes causing infrastructure bottlenecks (Kyiv bridge gridlock).
- Russia: Military operations (Su-57 cover, missile strikes) intensify regional conflict risk, feeding back into European energy supply concerns.
- Global: Autonomous truck beacon waiver legal developments indicate logistical risks but limited immediate energy impact.
- Spillover: War risk in Russia/Ukraine region is transmitting upward pressure on European energy prices, with limited contagion to global equity volatility.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €74.55/MWh | +1.71% |
| VIX | 15.31 points | -1.08 points |
| Brent Crude | $102.61/bbl | +0.12% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1257 USD/EUR | -0.62% |
| EU Gas Storage | 72.00% | +0.50 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signals vs Market Pricing:
- Brent crude remains below the $120 alert level despite "serious oil squeeze" warnings, indicating market may be discounting full war impact or expecting reserve releases.
- TTF gas price rise (+1.71%) aligns with risk alerts, confirming market sensitivity to European supply disruptions.
- VIX decline contrasts with risk alerts, suggesting equity markets are not pricing in escalation risk fully.
- EUR/USD depreciation supports risk premium in currency markets related to European energy uncertainty.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ algorithms identify a low but rising geopolitical energy risk environment driven by ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe and Iranian sanction circumvention. Market pricing partially reflects these tensions, with European gas prices reacting more sharply than oil or equity volatility. The widening gap between risk alerts and Brent pricing below $120 suggests market expectations of reserve releases or conflict containment. However, the risk of escalation remains material, particularly if infrastructure damage intensifies or diesel reserves are not promptly deployed. Energy portfolios should balance exposure to European gas and oil with active monitoring of geopolitical developments and storage levels to navigate potential volatility spikes.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.23% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.71% between recorded quotes; GERI 8 → 9. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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