European Energy Risk Index (EERI)

The EERI tracks geopolitical risk, gas supply disruptions, and market stress across European energy systems. Updated daily, it provides a single composite score from 0 to 100 measuring systemic risk in European energy markets.

European Energy Risk Index
26 / 100
MODERATE
0 = minimal risk · 100 = extreme systemic stress
Last updated: 2026-06-16
Public value delay: 24 hours
vs yesterday 0
7-day change +7
30-day range 0–36

What EERI Measures

EERI aggregates alert severity, regional conflict concentration, and energy asset exposure into a single daily index focused on European energy systems. It captures geopolitical tensions, gas supply disruptions, sanctions impacts, and market volatility affecting natural gas, crude oil, LNG, and power infrastructure across Europe.

⚔️
Geopolitical Risk
Medium
Energy Supply
High
📊
Market Stress
Low
📈

EERI History (14 days)

Public 14-day EERI history (24h delayed)

🧠

EERI Interpretation

Today’s moderate reading on the European Energy Risk Index signals that structural stress remains a persistent feature of the continent’s energy landscape, though not at levels that would demand emergency interventions. The current environment is marked by heightened vigilance, particularly around oil and gas supply chains, as geopolitical and market developments introduce new layers of complexity. For European stakeholders—ranging from utilities to heavy industry—this translates into a need for ongoing scenario planning and flexible sourcing strategies, as the risk of sudden price or supply shocks, while not acute, is far from negligible. The absence of asset-level transmission stress is a positive signal for grid reliability, yet the elevated regional and contagion indicators suggest that market stability is vulnerable to external shocks, especially those emanating from the broader Eurasian theater.

📊 Weekly Risk Snapshot

How European energy risk evolved this week and how markets responded.

⚡ Weekly EERI Overview
Week: Jun 08 – Jun 14, 2026
Average Risk
17 (LOW)
Trend vs Prior Week
→ Stable
Weekly High
33 (Thu)
Weekly Low
2 (Sun)
Risk Regime Distribution
MODERATE
2 days
LOW
5 days
Cross-Asset Risk Confirmation

Did markets validate the risk environment this week?

TTF Gas
-11.75%
🟡 Neutral
Gas prices showed limited reaction to risk conditions.
Brent Oil
-11.01%
🟡 Neutral
Oil moved modestly, suggesting mixed global supply-demand interpretation.
VIX
-6.55%
🟡 Neutral
Volatility markets showed limited reaction to energy-specific risk.
EUR/USD
N/A
🟡 Neutral
EUR/USD remained stable despite energy market stress.
EU Gas Storage
+4.44%
🟡 Neutral
Storage levels followed seasonal norms.
LNG (JKM)
-0.21%
🟡 Neutral
LNG markets showed limited reaction to European risk conditions.
EERI vs TTF Gas
EERI vs Brent Oil
EERI vs EU Storage
EERI vs VIX
EERI vs EUR/USD
Markets Diverging From Risk
Markets showed limited confirmation of elevated risk, suggesting potential underpricing of geopolitical stress.
Historical Context

Historically, weeks where EERI spends multiple days in LOW territory are associated with:

  • Markets typically operate within normal ranges
  • Gas price volatility remains subdued
  • Risk sentiment broadly stable
  • Seasonal patterns dominate over geopolitical signals
Next-Week Historical Tendencies (Not Forecasts)
TTF Gas
40–50% stable
Low
Brent Oil
45–55% stable
Low
VIX
40–50% stable
Low
EUR/USD
45–55% stable
Low
EU Gas Storage
50–60% seasonal norms
Medium
LNG (JKM)
45–55% stable
Low

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