European Energy Risk Index (EERI)

The EERI tracks geopolitical risk, gas supply disruptions, and market stress across European energy systems. Updated daily, it provides a single composite score from 0 to 100 measuring systemic risk in European energy markets.

European Energy Risk Index
30 / 100
MODERATE
0 = minimal risk · 100 = extreme systemic stress
Last updated: 2026-08-07
Public value delay: 24 hours
vs yesterday +12
7-day change +10
30-day range 9–41

What EERI Measures

EERI aggregates alert severity, regional conflict concentration, and energy asset exposure into a single daily index focused on European energy systems. It captures geopolitical tensions, gas supply disruptions, sanctions impacts, and market volatility affecting natural gas, crude oil, LNG, and power infrastructure across Europe.

⚔️
Geopolitical Risk
Medium
Energy Supply
Medium
📊
Market Stress
Medium
📈

EERI History (14 days)

Public 14-day EERI history (24h delayed)

🧠

EERI Interpretation

Today’s European Energy Risk Index signals a moderate but tangible level of structural stress across the continent’s energy landscape. While the index does not point to acute crisis, the combination of elevated regional risk and persistent external pressures is eroding the sense of stability that characterized much of the early summer. Gas and oil flows remain functional, but the market is increasingly exposed to shocks—both from within Europe and from critical supply corridors abroad. The lack of asset-level transmission stress offers some reassurance regarding grid integrity and interconnection, yet the persistent contagion factor underscores the vulnerability of European markets to disruptions emanating from outside the region. For European consumers and industries, this translates into heightened price volatility and a growing imperative for risk mitigation as we approach the autumn demand ramp-up.

📊 Weekly Risk Snapshot

How European energy risk evolved this week and how markets responded.

⚡ Weekly EERI Overview
Week: Jul 27 – Aug 02, 2026
Average Risk
23 (MODERATE)
Trend vs Prior Week
↓ Falling
Weekly High
36 (Thu)
Weekly Low
12 (Sun)
Risk Regime Distribution
MODERATE
3 days
LOW
4 days
Cross-Asset Risk Confirmation

Did markets validate the risk environment this week?

TTF Gas
-1.31%
🟡 Neutral
Gas prices showed limited reaction to risk conditions.
Brent Oil
-1.93%
🟡 Neutral
Oil moved modestly, suggesting mixed global supply-demand interpretation.
VIX
-14.35%
🟡 Neutral
Volatility markets showed limited reaction to energy-specific risk.
EUR/USD
+1.16%
🟡 Neutral
EUR/USD remained stable despite energy market stress.
EU Gas Storage
+2.68%
🟡 Neutral
Storage levels followed seasonal norms.
LNG (JKM)
+0.09%
🟡 Neutral
LNG markets showed limited reaction to European risk conditions.
EERI vs TTF Gas
EERI vs Brent Oil
EERI vs EU Storage
EERI vs VIX
EERI vs EUR/USD
Markets Diverging From Risk
Markets showed limited confirmation of elevated risk, suggesting potential underpricing of geopolitical stress.
Historical Context

Historically, weeks where EERI spends multiple days in MODERATE territory are associated with:

  • Markets typically operate within normal ranges
  • Gas price volatility remains subdued
  • Risk sentiment broadly stable
  • Seasonal patterns dominate over geopolitical signals
Next-Week Historical Tendencies (Not Forecasts)
TTF Gas
40–50% stable
Low
Brent Oil
45–55% stable
Low
VIX
40–50% stable
Low
EUR/USD
45–55% stable
Low
EU Gas Storage
50–60% seasonal norms
Medium
LNG (JKM)
45–55% stable
Low

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