GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
8 / 100
LOW1 day -7 · 7 day -3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
MABUX: October Bunker: GERI 8 | Energy Risk Oct 2 — October 02, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 8 (LOW) on 2026-10-01. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 8; 1-day change: -7.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-10-01.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€73.30/MWh
+1.52%
Source date: 2026-10-01
VIX
16.39 points
+0.05 points
Source date: 2026-10-01
Brent Crude
$102.37/bbl
+4.64%
Source date: 2026-10-01
EUR/USD
1.1327 USD/EUR
-0.12%
Source date: 2026-10-01
EU Gas Storage
71.50%
+0.00 pp
Source date: 2026-10-01
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| MABUX: October Bunker Prices Expected to Remain Volatile | 5 | 14.7% | Hellenic Shipping News — Shipping |
| When Safety Depends on Fuel: The Hidden Risk in Emergency Assets | 5 | 7.3% | Hellenic Shipping News — Shipping |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone confirmed by a sharp decline in the GERI (-7 to 8), indicating reduced global energy risk perception.
- Contagion Status: Elevated regional tensions (Middle East conflict fears, EU methane regulation delays) maintain localized risk pockets, but no broad contagion into global markets.
- Summary: Market volatility remains contained despite geopolitical flashpoints; risk appetite cautiously improving.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 8
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: Conflict fears keep oil prices elevated (+4.64% Brent), but polling indicates limited US public support for escalation, dampening contagion risk.
- Europe → Global: Diesel crisis and methane regulation delays increase regional energy stress but have not triggered broader market disruption.
- North Africa → Europe: Increased Suez transits (+59%) ease shipping bottlenecks, reducing pressure on global supply chains.
- North America → Europe: US pressure on Europe to release emergency reserves signals transatlantic cooperation, mitigating supply-side risks.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €73.30/MWh | +1.52% |
| VIX | 16.39 points | +0.05 points |
| Brent Crude | $102.37/bbl | +4.64% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1327 USD/EUR | -0.12% |
| EU Gas Storage | 71.50% | +0.00 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Brent crude’s +4.64% jump aligns with elevated Middle East conflict alerts, indicating no underpricing of geopolitical risk.
- TTF Gas +1.52% reflects regional supply concerns from diesel crisis and methane regulation delays, consistent with stable EU gas storage at 71.5%.
- VIX minimal change suggests equity markets are not pricing in heightened systemic risk despite energy tensions.
- EUR/USD slight decline (-0.12%) reflects cautious Eurozone risk sentiment amid diesel crisis and political shifts.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ Custom Algorithms identify a cautiously stabilizing global energy risk environment. Brent crude price gains reflect persistent Middle East conflict fears, yet polling data and increased Suez transit capacity provide counterbalances limiting broader market contagion. European diesel supply challenges and regulatory delays pose localized risks, warranting close monitoring of emergency reserve releases and political developments. Cross-asset sensitivities confirm energy markets are pricing geopolitical risk appropriately, while equity volatility remains subdued. Transition probabilities favor continued stabilization but retain significant tail risk from conflict escalation or sanction shocks. Traders should emphasize dynamic risk management, balancing oil exposure with defensive positioning in European industrial and power sectors.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +4.64% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.52% between recorded quotes; GERI 15 → 8. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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