GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
15 / 100
LOW1 day 3 · 7 day 6
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
EU Gas Crunch: GERI 15 | Energy Risk Oct 1 — October 01, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 15 (LOW) on 2026-09-30. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 15; 1-day change: 3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-30.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€72.20/MWh
-1.43%
Source date: 2026-09-30
VIX
16.34 points
+0.30 points
Source date: 2026-09-30
Brent Crude
$97.83/bbl
+1.60%
Source date: 2026-09-30
EUR/USD
1.1341 USD/EUR
-0.28%
Source date: 2026-09-30
EU Gas Storage
71.50%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-09-30
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU Gas Crunch Forces Rethink of Methane Rules | 5 | 18.8% | OilPrice.com |
| Child killed and three injured in Russian missile-drone strike on Vyshhorod - The New Voice of Ukraine | 5 | 4.3% | Ukraine Energy & Infrastructure |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low
- Regime: Stable, no regime currently classified
- Contagion Status: Limited cross-regional contagion despite geopolitical tensions; risk remains compartmentalized mainly within Europe and Black Sea regions.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 15
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Europe → Black Sea: High spillover from European gas crunch and conflict escalation (missile strikes, NATO warnings).
- Black Sea → Middle East: Limited spillover; fuel delays at Zhoushan linked to Middle East war tensions but not directly driven by Black Sea conflict.
- North America: Minimal contagion despite Venezuelan energy interest; political risk acknowledged but not escalating systemic risk.
- Russia: Military warnings and missile strikes increase regional risk but have limited immediate global contagion due to contained sanctions and market responses.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €72.20/MWh | -1.43% |
| VIX | 16.34 points | +0.30 points |
| Brent Crude | $97.83/bbl | +1.60% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1341 USD/EUR | -0.28% |
| EU Gas Storage | 71.50% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- GERI up +3 points indicates rising geopolitical risk, yet TTF gas prices declined (-1.43%) and EU gas storage increased (+0.20%), suggesting market pricing partially discounts conflict risk.
- Brent crude price rise (+1.60%) aligns with risk signals, reflecting oil market sensitivity to geopolitical uncertainty.
- VIX increase is modest, indicating limited broader market fear despite elevated regional conflict alerts.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk tone, yesterday’s alerts highlight persistent geopolitical flashpoints in Europe and the Black Sea, with missile strikes and military warnings underscoring latent escalation risk. The increase in GERI (+3) contrasts with a modest decline in European gas prices and a slight build in storage, indicating markets currently price in some risk mitigation. Brent crude’s 1.6% rise reflects oil’s sensitivity to geopolitical uncertainty, while VIX remains subdued, suggesting limited broader market anxiety. The concentration of LNG capacity in two countries by 2030 underscores structural supply risks, reinforcing the strategic importance of floating LNG as a diversification tool. Traders should monitor conflict developments closely, especially in the Black Sea, and track EU methane policy changes that could materially impact gas supply dynamics. The probability of regime transition to higher risk is moderate but not imminent, supporting a balanced approach with selective hedging in gas and oil markets.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -5.31% between recorded quotes; TTF -1.43% between recorded quotes; GERI 12 → 15. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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