GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
12 / 100
LOW1 day 4 · 7 day 3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 12 | Energy Risk Sep 30 — September 30, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 12 (LOW) on 2026-09-29. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 12; 1-day change: 4.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-29.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€73.25/MWh
+2.88%
Source date: 2026-09-29
VIX
16.04 points
-0.03 points
Source date: 2026-09-29
Brent Crude
$103.32/bbl
-2.89%
Source date: 2026-09-29
EUR/USD
1.1373 USD/EUR
-0.05%
Source date: 2026-09-29
EU Gas Storage
71.30%
+0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-09-29
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Europe’s Gas Crisis Deepens as Hormuz LNG Crunch Drives Prices Higher | 5 | 42.3% | OilPrice.com |
| ENGINE: East of Suez Fuel Availability Outlook | 5 | 7.3% | Hellenic Shipping News — Shipping |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk tone maintained despite geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Elevated cross-regional tensions but limited contagion into global financial volatility (VIX stable).
- Summary: Persistent Middle East and European energy supply risks are not yet triggering broad market stress, but localized energy price pressures are evident.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 12
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Hormuz LNG disruptions are elevating European gas prices (TTF +2.88%) despite Brent crude falling (-2.89%). This suggests supply chain bottlenecks rather than crude price fundamentals.
- Europe → Global: UK energy infrastructure threats and Kaliningrad tensions raise regional security risks but have limited global volatility impact (VIX flat).
- North Africa → Middle East: Ethiopia conflict risk adds to regional instability, potentially exacerbating Middle East energy supply concerns.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD (Beta Estimates)
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €73.25/MWh | +2.88% |
| VIX | 16.04 points | -0.03 points |
| Brent Crude | $103.32/bbl | -2.89% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1373 USD/EUR | -0.05% |
| EU Gas Storage | 71.30% | +0.10 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Energy Risk vs Brent Crude: Rising GERI (+4) contrasts with Brent’s 2.89% decline, indicating market pricing is discounting near-term crude oversupply or demand concerns despite geopolitical risks.
- Energy Risk vs TTF Gas: Strong alignment; TTF gas price up 2.88% confirms market recognition of European gas supply stress.
- VIX Stability: Divergence suggests risk is energy-sector specific, not broad market systemic.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS (7-day horizon)
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ algorithms identify a paradoxical environment where heightened geopolitical and energy supply risks coexist with declining crude prices and stable global volatility. The key driver is the LNG supply bottleneck in the Hormuz region, which disproportionately impacts European gas prices and energy security. While oil markets are currently discounting demand concerns or alternative supply sources, the risk of escalation in Middle East conflicts or European infrastructure attacks could rapidly shift the regime to medium or high risk. Traders should focus on gas and LNG exposures, maintain vigilance on geopolitical developments, and consider protective hedges against potential supply shocks. The divergence between energy risk indices and oil price behavior highlights the importance of multi-asset monitoring to capture nuanced risk transmission pathways.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -2.89% between recorded quotes; TTF +2.88% between recorded quotes; GERI 8 → 12. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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