GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
10 / 100
LOW1 day -5 · 7 day -1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
The LOWDOWN -: GERI 10 | Energy Risk Sep 27 — September 27, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 10 (LOW) on 2026-09-26. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 10; 1-day change: -5.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-26.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€71.89/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-25
VIX
14.87 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-25
Brent Crude
$104.38/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-25
EUR/USD
1.1401 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-25
EU Gas Storage
70.60%
+0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-09-26
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone, supported by a decline in the Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) from 15 to 10.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion persists, driven by escalating conflict risks in North Africa and the Middle East, partially offset by stable European market sentiment.
- Summary: While headline geopolitical tensions remain elevated, particularly around Libya and Iran, market volatility and risk premiums are easing slightly, reflecting a cautious but steady risk environment.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 10
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Heightened sanctions on Iran and ongoing air defense operations in Saudi Arabia sustain pressure on oil supply routes, increasing European energy risk spillover.
- North Africa → Global Oil Markets: Libya’s oil infrastructure threats risk triggering sanctions, threatening global crude supply stability, reinforcing risk premiums in Brent crude.
- Europe → Global Markets: Russia’s intensified strikes and industrial shutdowns raise localized supply chain concerns but limited global contagion due to diversified sourcing and storage buffers.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €71.89/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 14.87 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $104.38/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1401 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 70.60% | +0.10 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Brent Pricing: Despite multiple 5/5 alerts on sanctions and war, Brent crude declined marginally (-0.07%), indicating market expectations of manageable supply disruptions or offsetting factors such as OPEC+ production adjustments or strategic reserves.
- TTF Gas vs Risk Indices: TTF gas surged +1.96%, outpacing risk index increases, signaling market sensitivity to European supply risks amid geopolitical tensions and industrial disruptions in Europe.
- VIX vs GERI: VIX declined (-0.80) while GERI dropped (-5), consistent with a stabilizing risk perception and reduced market fear.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The current risk environment reflects a complex interplay of persistent geopolitical hotspots and stabilizing market dynamics. Despite multiple high-severity alerts centered on Middle East sanctions and North African conflict risks, market pricing in Brent crude remains subdued, suggesting expectations of manageable supply disruptions or compensatory production. European gas markets, however, are more sensitive, with TTF gas prices rising nearly 2%, underscoring regional supply concerns amid industrial shutdowns and geopolitical uncertainty. The decline in volatility indices and the GERI index signals a cautiously optimistic market stance, though the probability of escalation remains non-negligible. Portfolio strategies should emphasize flexible hedging in crude and gas, close monitoring of sanction developments, and leveraging storage assets to mitigate supply shocks.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.96% between recorded quotes; GERI 15 → 10. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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