GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
15 / 100
LOW1 day 3 · 7 day 4
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Saudi Oil Exports: GERI 15 | Energy Risk Sep 26 — September 26, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 15 (LOW) on 2026-09-25. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 15; 1-day change: 3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-25.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€70.51/MWh
-6.10%
Source date: 2026-09-25
VIX
14.87 points
-0.80 points
Source date: 2026-09-25
Brent Crude
$104.38/bbl
-1.94%
Source date: 2026-09-25
EUR/USD
1.1392 USD/EUR
+0.09%
Source date: 2026-09-25
EU Gas Storage
70.50%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-09-25
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Oil Exports Surge Despite Conflict, Impacting Brent Prices - GuruFocus | 5 | 7.6% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| UAE markets decline after warning on regional air travel - Business Recorder | 5 | 3.7% | ADNOC & UAE Energy |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low, supported by a modest increase in GERI (Locked — free account to Locked — free account) and a decrease in EERI (Locked — free account to Locked — free account).
- Regime Status: No clear regime classification currently; market shows low volatility (VIX 14.87, down 0.80) and stable European gas storage (70.5%, +0.20).
- Contagion: Limited contagion observed; regional conflicts in Middle East and Russia have not yet escalated into broader systemic risk.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 15
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: High-risk alerts from Middle East conflicts (Saudi exports surge, Iran-Iraq flight disruptions, Houthi threats) are contained regionally; global oil prices show modest decline, indicating limited spillover.
- North America → Global: Spot natural gas price volatility due to emergency repairs and weather divergence is localized; US diesel export ban risks global stock drawdowns but not immediate contagion.
- Europe → Global: Poland’s air defense boost and Ukraine-Russia conflict maintain regional tension but have not triggered broader energy market disruption; EU gas storage stability supports containment.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €70.51/MWh | -6.10% |
| VIX | 14.87 points | -0.80 points |
| Brent Crude | $104.38/bbl | -1.94% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1392 USD/EUR | +0.09% |
| EU Gas Storage | 70.50% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs. Market Pricing: Elevated Middle East geopolitical risk (EGSI-M Locked — free account) contrasts with declining Brent prices (Locked — free account), indicating market confidence in Saudi export resilience and supply continuity.
- TTF Gas Risk vs. Price: Emergency repair alerts and weather divergence suggest risk, yet TTF prices fell 6.1%, showing market optimism on repair progress and weather normalization.
- Volatility Index vs. Risk Alerts: VIX decline despite multiple 5/5 alerts indicates market complacency or discounting of conflict escalation risks.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite multiple high-severity alerts centered on Middle East conflicts and energy supply disruptions, the market is currently pricing in resilience, as evidenced by declining Brent and TTF prices alongside stable volatility measures. Saudi Arabia’s increased oil exports are mitigating upward price pressures from regional tensions. European gas storage remains robust, alleviating immediate supply concerns. However, the risk of escalation or policy shifts such as a US diesel export ban could rapidly shift market dynamics. Traders should monitor geopolitical developments closely, especially in the Middle East, and maintain flexible hedging strategies to respond to potential regime shifts. The current low-risk environment may persist short term but is vulnerable to sudden shocks.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.34% between recorded quotes; TTF -6.10% between recorded quotes; GERI 12 → 15. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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