GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
2 / 100
LOW1 day -8 · 7 day -9
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
FG moves to: GERI 2 | Energy Risk Sep 28 — September 28, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 2 (LOW) on 2026-09-27. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 2; 1-day change: -8.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-27.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€73.31/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-25
VIX
14.87 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-25
Brent Crude
$105.70/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-25
EUR/USD
1.1401 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-25
EU Gas Storage
70.90%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-09-27
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| FG moves to tackle Calabar ecological crisis threatening Navy, NNPC facilities - Vanguard News | 5 | 13.9% | Nigeria NNPC & LNG |
| UNGA 2026: India's veiled warning to Pakistan at the United Nations - wionews.com | 5 | 3.3% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Current Regime: Stabilizing risk tone
- Contagion Status: Moderate cross-regional tension with potential for escalation in North Africa and Middle East
- Summary: Despite a slight decline in global geopolitical risk (GERI -8), elevated energy-related conflict alerts and military actions in North Africa and the Middle East sustain upward pressure on energy markets. Market volatility (VIX) has eased slightly, reflecting some risk absorption.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 2
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- North Africa: High spillover risk from ecological crisis threatening Nigerian Navy and NNPC facilities, plus Libya oil infrastructure disruption risk. These increase regional energy supply vulnerability.
- Middle East: Heightened alert from India-Pakistan tensions at UNGA adds geopolitical risk that can affect regional oil flows and LNG shipments.
- Asia: China’s strategic moves in PCTC orders and South Korea’s LNG carrier targeting indicate shifting supply chain dynamics, influencing global shipping and energy logistics.
- Europe: EU’s internal political uncertainty (rejoin push) adds to risk, but spillover to energy markets remains contained due to stable gas storage levels.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €73.31/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 14.87 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $105.70/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1401 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 70.90% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- GERI decline contrasts with rising Brent and TTF prices, indicating market pricing in localized supply risks despite global risk easing.
- VIX decline suggests market complacency or confidence in risk containment, potentially underestimating escalation risk in North Africa.
- EUR/USD stable, reflecting balanced risk sentiment without major currency-driven energy cost shifts.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ Custom Algorithms identify a nuanced risk environment: global geopolitical risk indices show a modest easing, yet localized energy infrastructure threats in North Africa and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sustain elevated energy market risk premiums. Brent and TTF gas prices are responding to these localized supply concerns, diverging from broader risk index trends and subdued market volatility. The ecological crisis in Calabar presents a unique risk vector potentially impacting Nigerian oil and gas operations, while the Libya oil infrastructure warnings signal possible sanctions-induced supply
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +1.26% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.98% between recorded quotes; GERI 10 → 2. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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