GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
10 / 100
LOW1 day -7 · 7 day -5
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 10 | Energy Risk Sep 23 — September 23, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 10 (LOW) on 2026-09-22. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 10; 1-day change: -7.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-22.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€71.33/MWh
-3.16%
Source date: 2026-09-22
VIX
14.21 points
-0.66 points
Source date: 2026-09-22
Brent Crude
$99.24/bbl
-1.69%
Source date: 2026-09-22
EUR/USD
1.1465 USD/EUR
-0.13%
Source date: 2026-09-22
EU Gas Storage
70.10%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-09-22
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz crisis may delay Qatar LNG expansion projects: QatarEnergy CEO - IranOilGas | 5 | 21.6% | QatarEnergy & Qatar LNG |
| ENGINE: East of Suez Fuel Availability Outlook | 5 | 7.3% | Hellenic Shipping News — Shipping |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone confirmed by a notable drop in GERI (Locked — free account) and marginal easing in EERI (Locked — free account).
- Contagion Status: Limited contagion; Middle East tensions persist but global risk indices suggest contained spillover.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 10
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: Hormuz Strait tensions continue to pressure LNG expansion projects (Qatar) and oilfield operations (Sharara), but global markets show resilience.
- Europe → Global: Black Sea blockade and Ukraine conflict maintain elevated risk in Europe, yet no significant contagion to global energy prices observed.
- Asia: Fuel availability outlook flagged but no immediate market disruption; potential medium-term supply chain risks.
- North Africa: Sharara oilfield pipeline shutdown raises regional supply risk, with limited global spillover currently.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €71.33/MWh | -3.16% |
| VIX | 14.21 points | -0.66 points |
| Brent Crude | $99.24/bbl | -1.69% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1465 USD/EUR | -0.13% |
| EU Gas Storage | 70.10% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Despite high-level geopolitical alerts (Hormuz, Black Sea), Brent and TTF gas prices are down 1.69% and 3.16%, respectively, suggesting markets price in risk mitigation or delayed impact.
- The 0.20% increase in EU gas storage further supports price softness, indicating market confidence in near-term supply sufficiency.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS: PORTFOLIO IMPLICATIONS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ algorithms identify a stabilizing risk environment despite headline geopolitical tensions. Market pricing reflects cautious optimism, discounting immediate supply shocks. However, medium-term risks remain elevated due to potential LNG expansion delays and persistent regional conflicts. Traders should balance short-term risk easing with hedges against supply disruptions, particularly in LNG and Middle East oil sectors. Monitoring diplomatic developments and infrastructure status remains critical for anticipating regime shifts.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: Market Correction/De-escalation · Probability: 50% illustrative weight, not a calibrated forecast
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.65% between recorded quotes; TTF -3.16% between recorded quotes; GERI 17 → 10. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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