GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
17 / 100
LOW1 day 4 · 7 day 1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
New U.S. Sanctions: GERI 17 | Energy Risk Sep 22 — September 22, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 17 (LOW) on 2026-09-21. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 17; 1-day change: 4.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-21.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€73.66/MWh
-7.76%
Source date: 2026-09-21
VIX
14.87 points
+0.06 points
Source date: 2026-09-21
Brent Crude
$100.90/bbl
-0.77%
Source date: 2026-09-21
EUR/USD
1.1480 USD/EUR
-0.08%
Source date: 2026-09-21
EU Gas Storage
69.90%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-09-21
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| New U.S. Sanctions Law Threatens India’s Huge Russian Oil Trade | 5 | 24.8% | OilPrice.com |
| Russia Plans 80% Increase in Kamikaze Drone Production and Stockpiles Ballistic Missiles for Winter Strikes. - ubn.news | 5 | 4.6% | Ukraine Energy & Infrastructure |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low
- Regime Status: Transitional, with mixed signals from geopolitical tensions and market reactions
- Contagion Status: Limited contagion; European and Middle Eastern risks remain contained but monitored
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 17
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Europe: Elevated risk from Russian attacks on refining infrastructure and diesel supply crunch, but gas prices retreat (-7.76%) indicating short-term relief.
- Middle East: Persistent tension with Iran conflict risks and Brent stalemate; however, slight price decline (-0.77%) suggests market pricing in de-escalation potential.
- Global: U.S. sanctions on India-Russia oil trade may disrupt Black Sea flows, potentially affecting global crude logistics and shipping reliability (Far East-Europe on-time at 6%).
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €73.66/MWh | -7.76% |
| VIX | 14.87 points | +0.06 points |
| Brent Crude | $100.90/bbl | -0.77% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1480 USD/EUR | -0.08% |
| EU Gas Storage | 69.90% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Despite high-level geopolitical alerts (5/5 severity), Brent and TTF gas prices declined, indicating market skepticism about immediate escalation impact or anticipation of diplomatic resolution.
- Diesel prices remain elevated, signaling supply-side stress not fully reflected in crude or gas prices.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk tone, the market is navigating a complex interplay of geopolitical escalation risks and economic headwinds. The recent U.S. sanctions targeting India’s Russian oil imports add a new dimension to global crude flows, potentially tightening supply chains already strained by refinery disruptions in Europe due to ongoing conflict. However, the sharp decline in European gas prices (-7.76%) and stable storage levels suggest market participants are currently pricing in a potential easing of inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions. Diesel’s record highs underscore a critical supply bottleneck, warranting close monitoring for inflation spillover into industrial sectors. The divergence between high-severity alerts and softening energy prices points to a market cautiously optimistic about de-escalation or delayed sanction impacts. Traders should prepare for increased volatility if military actions intensify or sanctions enforcement accelerates, while also considering the possibility of a market correction driven by macroeconomic factors.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.46% between recorded quotes; TTF -7.76% between recorded quotes; GERI 13 → 17. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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