GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
3 / 100
LOW1 day -7 · 7 day -11
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Zelensky arrives in: GERI 3 | Energy Risk Sep 24 — September 24, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 3 (LOW) on 2026-09-23. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 3; 1-day change: -7.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-23.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€74.15/MWh
+3.95%
Source date: 2026-09-23
VIX
15.18 points
+0.97 points
Source date: 2026-09-23
Brent Crude
$102.14/bbl
+2.92%
Source date: 2026-09-23
EUR/USD
1.1448 USD/EUR
-0.14%
Source date: 2026-09-23
EU Gas Storage
70.20%
+0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-09-23
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zelensky arrives in US hoping to push for halt in strikes — expert | 5 | 4.5% | TASS World News |
| Shipping’s Transition Being Hampered By Policy Uncertainty, Yet Industry Progress Continues | 5 | 7.4% | Hellenic Shipping News — Shipping |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone after recent volatility.
- Contagion Status: Elevated geopolitical tensions in Europe and Middle East continue to propagate risk, but market response shows cautious resilience.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 3
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Europe → Global: High spillover from Russia-Ukraine conflict alerts (missile stockpiling, diplomatic tensions) sustaining elevated EERI.
- Middle East → Europe/Global: US sanctions on Iran aviation and threats escalate regional risk, pushing energy prices higher and affecting global shipping and aviation sectors.
- Global Shipping: Policy uncertainty hampers transition progress, indirectly increasing systemic risk in energy logistics and supply chains.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €74.15/MWh | +3.95% |
| VIX | 15.18 points | +0.97 points |
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +2.92% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1448 USD/EUR | -0.14% |
| EU Gas Storage | 70.20% | +0.10 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Elevated geopolitical alerts (EERI Locked — free account) contrast with GERI decline (Locked — free account), suggesting markets are pricing in short-term stabilization while underlying event risk remains elevated.
- Price vs Risk: Brent and TTF gas prices rising (+2.92%, +3.95%) despite stabilizing GERI indicates market is forward-looking, factoring in potential supply disruptions from Middle East sanctions and Russian missile stockpiling.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ Custom Algorithms identify a complex risk environment where headline geopolitical tensions remain elevated despite a short-term stabilizing tone. The divergence between declining GERI and rising EERI underscores market optimism tempered by persistent event risk. Energy prices, particularly Brent and TTF gas, are reacting strongly to Middle East sanctions and European conflict dynamics, signaling forward-looking concerns about supply disruptions. The probability of regime escalation remains material, warranting active monitoring of diplomatic developments and sanctions enforcement. Portfolio strategies should balance exposure to commodity upside against risks of sudden volatility spikes, with particular attention to LNG and industrial sectors sensitive to input cost volatility.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +2.92% between recorded quotes; TTF +3.95% between recorded quotes; GERI 10 → 3. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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