GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
13 / 100
LOW1 day 9 · 7 day -3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
US Officials’ Visits: GERI 13 | Energy Risk Sep 21 — September 21, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 13 (LOW) on 2026-09-20. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 13; 1-day change: 9.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-20.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€79.86/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-18
VIX
14.81 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-18
Brent Crude
$101.37/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-18
EUR/USD
1.1489 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-18
EU Gas Storage
69.60%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-09-20
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Officials’ Visits to Moscow and Attacks on Ukraine’s Energy: NATO Escalation Risks - 112.ua | 5 | 6.3% | Ukraine Energy & Infrastructure |
| Running Out of Options: Conflict Restricts Saudi Oil Exports | 5 | 22.0% | Maritime Executive |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low, despite multiple high-severity alerts (all rated 5/5) primarily related to geopolitical tensions and conflict in Europe and the Middle East.
- Regime: Transitional, no established regime currently detected; market volatility (VIX) slightly decreased, indicating subdued investor fear.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion risk from Middle East geopolitical tensions to global energy markets, partially offset by easing supply disruption fears.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 13
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Elevated risk spillover due to pipeline attacks (Yanbu) and Hormuz Strait tensions impacting crude and freight markets.
- Europe → Global Gas Markets: Ukraine energy infrastructure strikes increase European gas supply concerns, supporting TTF gas price rise (+1.04%).
- Middle East → Global Oil Markets: Despite supply fears, Brent crude fell 1.93%, reflecting market digestion of risk and partial easing of immediate supply disruption concerns.
- Black Sea → Grain and Energy Markets: Turkey's push for shipping deal amid attacks signals risk to regional trade, indirectly pressuring energy logistics.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €79.86/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 14.81 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $101.37/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1489 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 69.60% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Brent Crude: GERI up +9 indicates rising geopolitical risk, but Brent crude down nearly 2% suggests market pricing in risk mitigation or alternative supply sources.
- TTF Gas vs EERI: Gas prices up modestly (Locked — free account) aligned with slight EERI increase (Locked — free account), indicating market sensitivity to energy event risks in Europe.
- Volatility (VIX) vs Risk Indices: VIX decline (-0.63%) diverges from rising GERI, suggesting risk is not translating into broader market fear.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ algorithms flag a paradoxical environment: geopolitical risk indices surged sharply due to multiple high-severity alerts in the Middle East and Europe, yet Brent crude prices declined nearly 2%, and volatility eased. This suggests markets are pricing in risk mitigation, possibly through alternative supply sources or expectations of diplomatic progress. European gas prices rose modestly, reflecting localized supply concerns from Ukraine conflict and pipeline attacks. The risk regime remains low-to-moderate with a 25% chance of escalation into a high-risk phase if proxy conflicts intensify. Traders should monitor Middle East proxy war developments and Ukraine energy strikes closely, as these are key drivers for potential rapid shifts in energy prices and volatility. Maintaining flexible hedges and watching storage levels will be critical in the near term.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.93% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.04% between recorded quotes; GERI 4 → 13. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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