GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
3 / 100
LOW1 day -9 · 7 day -9
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
OPEC+ halts oil: GERI 3 | Energy Risk Sep 7 — September 07, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 3 (LOW) on 2026-09-06. The brief covers 7 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 3; 1-day change: -9.
- 7 alerts considered from 2026-09-06.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€74.93/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-04
VIX
14.53 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-04
Brent Crude
$96.28/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-04
EUR/USD
1.1621 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-04
EU Gas Storage
66.60%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-09-06
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPEC+ halts oil output hike, maintains October production level - TheCable | 5 | 23.6% | Nigeria NNPC & LNG |
| Iran Renews Threats and Says it Turned Back Ships After US Sinks Tanker | 5 | 22.1% | Maritime Executive |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone confirmed by a slight decline in global energy risk index (GERI -9 to 3).
- Contagion Status: Elevated geopolitical tensions in Middle East and Eastern Europe sustain elevated regional risk spillovers, despite OPEC+ production pause.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 3
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: High event risk from Iran-US naval confrontations and Israeli airstrikes, driving localized risk premiums in oil and LNG markets.
- North Africa: OPEC+ decision to halt output hike stabilizes supply expectations, mitigating spillover to global oil prices.
- Europe: Russian strike warnings increase risk premium on European gas, contributing to TTF gas price surge (+4.46%).
- Cross-Region: Elevated Middle East and Eastern Europe tensions maintain risk contagion, particularly impacting LNG and gas markets.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €74.93/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 14.53 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $96.28/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1621 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 66.60% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Brent: High event risk (EERI Locked — free account) not reflected in Brent price (flat), indicating market confidence in OPEC+ supply stability.
- Risk Signal vs TTF Gas: Strong alignment; rising geopolitical tensions directly translate into elevated gas prices (+4.46%).
- VIX vs Risk: Minimal increase suggests equity markets remain relatively calm despite geopolitical alerts.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The risk environment remains cautiously stabilizing, underpinned by OPEC+’s decision to hold production steady, which has tempered oil price volatility despite elevated geopolitical tensions. However, persistent Middle East military confrontations and credible Russian strike warnings sustain elevated event risk, particularly pressuring European gas markets as reflected in the 4.46% TTF price surge. The divergence between flat Brent prices and rising event risk suggests market confidence in OPEC+ supply discipline but flags vulnerability in gas markets due to geopolitical spillovers. Traders should prioritize monitoring geopolitical developments and OPEC+ policy signals, with a focus on gas market volatility hedging and selective exposure to oil-linked assets. The probability of regime escalation remains moderate, necessitating readiness for rapid risk repricing.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +1.38% between recorded quotes; TTF +4.46% between recorded quotes; GERI 12 → 3. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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