GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
15 / 100
LOW1 day 12 · 7 day 3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Goldman, Rystad See: GERI 15 | Energy Risk Sep 8 — September 08, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 15 (LOW) on 2026-09-07. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 15; 1-day change: 12.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-07.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€73.34/MWh
-2.12%
Source date: 2026-09-07
VIX
15.30 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-04
Brent Crude
$97.13/bbl
+0.47%
Source date: 2026-09-07
EUR/USD
1.1614 USD/EUR
-0.06%
Source date: 2026-09-07
EU Gas Storage
66.90%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-09-07
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman, Rystad See Room for $120 Oil if U.S.-Iran Conflict Continues | 5 | 32.2% | Maritime Executive |
| Israel’s removal of Gaza rubble risk to war crimes evidence: UN | 5 | 1.9% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk tone maintained despite heightened Middle East conflict alerts.
- Contagion Status: Regional geopolitical tensions in Middle East remain primary risk source; limited contagion to Europe or global markets observed.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 15
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: Conflict and war alerts (Israel-Gaza, Iran domestic threats) are pushing Brent crude prices higher (+0.47%), indicating spillover to global energy pricing.
- Middle East → Europe: Russian energy sector threats and oil sales to India amid US tariffs create moderate geopolitical tension but limited direct impact on European gas prices (TTF -2.12%).
- North Africa & Europe: Geopolitical unrest in North Africa has low current impact on European gas storage (+0.3%) or prices.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €73.34/MWh | -2.12% |
| VIX | 15.30 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $97.13/bbl | +0.47% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1614 USD/EUR | -0.06% |
| EU Gas Storage | 66.90% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Despite highest alert severity (5/5) for Middle East conflict, Brent crude remains below $100, suggesting market pricing is discounting some risk or awaiting further escalation.
- European risk signals (EERI) declined slightly, but TTF gas prices dropped over Locked — free account, indicating market expects stable or improving supply despite Russian threats.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Middle East geopolitical tensions remain the dominant risk factor driving energy markets, particularly crude oil. Despite multiple maximum severity alerts, market pricing has yet to fully reflect the potential for a $120+ Brent scenario, indicating either risk discounting or anticipation of conflict containment. European energy markets show resilience with stable storage and declining risk indices, though Russian threats warrant close monitoring. The low overall risk tone suggests current market positioning remains cautious but not defensive. Traders should track escalation signals closely, as EnergyRiskIQ algorithms highlight a non-negligible probability of regime transition if conflicts intensify. Energy storage and LNG assets offer strategic hedges amid this uncertainty.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.88% between recorded quotes; TTF -2.12% between recorded quotes; GERI 3 → 15. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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