GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
12 / 100
LOW1 day -1 · 7 day 0
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Iran War Forces: GERI 12 | Energy Risk Sep 6 — September 06, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 12 (LOW) on 2026-09-05. The brief covers 11 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 12; 1-day change: -1.
- 11 alerts considered from 2026-09-05.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€71.73/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-04
VIX
14.53 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-04
Brent Crude
$94.97/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-04
EUR/USD
1.1621 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-04
EU Gas Storage
66.30%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-09-05
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran War Forces a Rewrite of Global Oil Trade Routes | 5 | 30.6% | OilPrice.com |
| West refuses to admit its mistake, continues to fan flames of war — Fico | 5 | 1.4% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Current Regime: Stabilizing risk tone amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Moderate cross-regional spillover, primarily from Middle East conflicts and Russia-Ukraine war dynamics.
- Market Reaction: Brent crude down 2.35%, reflecting short-term risk-off despite stable gas prices and slight volatility uptick.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 12
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Iran war and Iraq fuel shortages sustain supply concerns, pressuring Brent and European gas indirectly.
- Russia → Europe: Ukraine conflict escalations (146 attacks on Belgorod) maintain pressure on European energy security and sanctions regime.
- Asia: India’s increased Russian oil purchases under sanctions threat create diplomatic tension, potentially affecting global oil flows and pricing.
- Sanctions: US sanctions on Turkish bank add financial sector risk, with potential knock-on effects on Middle East trade financing.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €71.73/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 14.53 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $94.97/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1621 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 66.30% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Brent: Elevated Middle East geopolitical risk (EGSI-M Locked — free account) contrasts with Brent’s Locked — free account decline, suggesting market pricing in Saudi production recovery offsets supply fears.
- Risk Signal vs Gas Prices: Stable TTF gas price despite ongoing European risk (Ukraine war) indicates market confidence in storage levels (66.3% full) and supply resilience.
- Volatility vs Risk Indices: VIX increase (+0.21) modest relative to risk indices decline, signaling cautious optimism rather than risk aversion.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The risk environment is currently stabilizing, supported by Saudi Arabia’s partial recovery in oil production and tentative diplomatic progress in conflict zones. However, persistent geopolitical flashpoints—specifically the Iran war, Iraq’s fuel shortages, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict—maintain underlying volatility and risk of sudden escalation. Brent crude’s price decline despite elevated Middle East risk signals market confidence in supply resilience, but this could reverse if Iran-related disruptions intensify. European gas prices remain stable, underpinned by robust storage levels, which serve as a critical buffer against supply shocks. Sanctions-related financial risks in the Middle East add a layer of complexity, potentially impacting trade financing and regional liquidity. Traders should remain vigilant for shifts in these key indicators, balancing hedges against potential geopolitical escalations with opportunities arising from current stabilization trends.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: Status Quo Persistence · Probability: 45% illustrative weight, not a calibrated forecast
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.00% between recorded quotes; GERI 13 → 12. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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