GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
13 / 100
LOW1 day 5 · 7 day 2
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Navigation Warning After: GERI 13 | Energy Risk Sep 5 — September 05, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 13 (LOW) on 2026-09-04. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 13; 1-day change: 5.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-04.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€71.73/MWh
+0.32%
Source date: 2026-09-04
VIX
14.53 points
+0.21 points
Source date: 2026-09-04
Brent Crude
$94.97/bbl
-2.35%
Source date: 2026-09-04
EUR/USD
1.1621 USD/EUR
+0.31%
Source date: 2026-09-04
EU Gas Storage
66.10%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-09-04
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Navigation Warning After Ship Loses 46 Containers in Philippine Waters | 5 | 8.1% | Maritime Executive |
| Israeli strike kills two in southern Lebanon amid ongoing escalation | 5 | 1.9% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low
- Regime: Transitional, with rising geopolitical tensions but contained market volatility
- Contagion Status: Moderate cross-regional risk spillover, primarily from Middle East conflicts and Black Sea hostilities
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 13
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: Israeli strikes and US-Iran stalemate sustain elevated war risk, pressuring oil supply expectations.
- Europe → Global: Russian missile and drone threats in Ukraine and Black Sea attacks disrupt grain exports, indirectly pressuring energy and food markets.
- Global Maritime: Container loss in Philippine waters and US port vulnerabilities highlight logistic risks, potentially impacting global energy shipping routes.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €71.73/MWh | +0.32% |
| VIX | 14.53 points | +0.21 points |
| Brent Crude | $94.97/bbl | -2.35% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1621 USD/EUR | +0.31% |
| EU Gas Storage | 66.10% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Brent Price: Elevated war risk (GERI +5) contrasts with Brent price decline (-2.35%), indicating market skepticism about near-term supply disruption severity or demand weakening.
- Diesel Prices vs Brent: Record diesel prices pushing Brent toward $95 suggest refined product tightness despite crude price softness, highlighting supply chain or refinery bottlenecks.
- Gas Prices vs Storage: TTF gas marginally up (+0.32%) while EU storage rises (+0.3%) shows balanced supply-demand with risk premiums priced in.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk tone, the energy market faces significant geopolitical headwinds, particularly from the Middle East and Eastern Europe. The rise in GERI (+5) reflects acute war-related risks, but market pricing shows cautious skepticism, with Brent crude pulling back amid record diesel prices suggesting supply chain stress rather than outright crude scarcity. European gas markets remain balanced due to steady storage levels, limiting immediate price shocks. However, the risk of escalation remains material, with a one-third chance of transitioning to a medium risk regime if conflicts intensify. Traders should monitor diesel spreads closely and maintain flexible hedges around geopolitical hotspots, while leveraging storage data to anticipate gas market moves.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: Continued Stabilization · Probability: 60% illustrative weight, not a calibrated forecast
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.91% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.32% between recorded quotes; GERI 8 → 13. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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