GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
8 / 100
LOW1 day -8 · 7 day -3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Iran War Spreads: GERI 8 | Energy Risk Sep 4 — September 04, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 8 (LOW) on 2026-09-03. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 8; 1-day change: -8.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-03.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€71.50/MWh
-2.95%
Source date: 2026-09-03
VIX
14.32 points
-0.88 points
Source date: 2026-09-03
Brent Crude
$95.84/bbl
+0.67%
Source date: 2026-09-03
EUR/USD
1.1585 USD/EUR
-0.09%
Source date: 2026-09-03
EU Gas Storage
65.80%
+0.00 pp
Source date: 2026-09-03
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Regime: Stabilizing
Contagion Status: Moderate regional spillover, primarily from Middle East war risk extending to Europe via supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions.
- GERI declined sharply (-8) indicating easing global energy risk perception.
- EERI marginally down (Locked — free account), reflecting persistent but slightly reduced European energy risk.
- EGSI-M steady, signaling stable Middle East geopolitical stress.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 8
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East war risk spreading beyond Hormuz to Red Sea and Caspian fuels global shipping insurance claims (+$2B), pressuring global energy logistics.
- Europe impacted by Ukrainian grain transit bottlenecks and Russia-Ukraine refinery attacks, increasing regional supply risk.
- Pakistan’s LNG crisis threatens South Asian power supply, potentially increasing regional energy demand and market volatility.
- US-Europe tensions over Russia complicate coordinated energy policy, increasing uncertainty.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €71.50/MWh | -2.95% |
| VIX | 14.32 points | -0.88 points |
| Brent Crude | $95.84/bbl | +0.67% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1585 USD/EUR | -0.09% |
| EU Gas Storage | 65.80% | +0.00 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Brent crude price (+0.67%) shows moderate risk premium despite GERI drop (-8), indicating market cautiousness on unresolved Middle East war risk.
- TTF gas price (Locked — free account) declines more sharply than EERI (Locked — free account), suggesting market expects short-term European supply disruptions to ease or be mitigated.
- VIX decline (-0.88%) contrasts with persistent geopolitical alerts, reflecting market’s partial risk discounting or adaptation.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ algorithms identify a stabilizing global energy risk environment despite persistent high Middle East geopolitical stress and European supply chain vulnerabilities. The sharp GERI decline suggests market confidence in limited war escalation and no immediate US intervention, yet the unchanged EGSI-M and ongoing shipping attacks maintain a risk premium in oil prices. European gas prices have corrected downward, reflecting partial mitigation of supply disruptions, supported by stable EU storage. Pakistan’s LNG crisis introduces a regional power risk, adding complexity to global LNG market dynamics. The divergence between risk indices and asset prices signals cautious market positioning, with potential for volatility spikes if geopolitical tensions escalate. Traders should monitor multi-week risk indicators closely, particularly insurance claims and grain transit flows, to adjust hedging strategies dynamically.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.68% between recorded quotes; TTF -2.95% between recorded quotes; GERI 16 → 8. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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