GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
16 / 100
LOW1 day -1 · 7 day 6
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
U.S. SPR Depletion: GERI 16 | Energy Risk Sep 3 — September 03, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 16 (LOW) on 2026-09-02. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 16; 1-day change: -1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-02.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€73.67/MWh
+0.08%
Source date: 2026-09-02
VIX
15.20 points
-1.14 points
Source date: 2026-09-02
Brent Crude
$95.19/bbl
-1.07%
Source date: 2026-09-02
EUR/USD
1.1596 USD/EUR
-0.19%
Source date: 2026-09-02
EU Gas Storage
65.80%
+0.40 pp
Source date: 2026-09-02
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. SPR Depletion Threatens Further Oil Price Volatility | 5 | 29.1% | OilPrice.com |
| US investigates circumstances of strike on wedding in Iran — NBC | 5 | 3.8% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Regime: Stabilizing
- Contagion Status: Elevated geopolitical tensions in Middle East and Russia persist, but marginal easing in overall risk sentiment as indicated by slight declines in GERI and EERI.
- Summary: Despite ongoing high-impact conflict alerts, market volatility and energy risk indices show modest retreat, suggesting tentative market adaptation to persistent conflict-driven uncertainty.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 16
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global Energy Markets: High-impact US-Iran strikes and Saudi export constraints continue to pressure global oil supply perceptions, maintaining elevated Brent volatility.
- Russia → Europe: Escalation in strikes and war-related incidents in Russia sustain risk spillover into European energy security, reflected in jet fuel concerns and Black Sea maritime defenses.
- Europe → Global: EU political uncertainty over Israel response adds to regional risk premium, though direct energy market impact remains secondary.
- Summary: Risk contagion remains primarily from Middle East conflict to global oil markets and from Russia to European energy logistics.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €73.67/MWh | +0.08% |
| VIX | 15.20 points | -1.14 points |
| Brent Crude | $95.19/bbl | -1.07% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1596 USD/EUR | -0.19% |
| EU Gas Storage | 65.80% | +0.40 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Brent Price: High-level geopolitical alerts (5/5 severity) contrast with Brent’s modest price drop (-1.07%), indicating market pricing in supply risk but tempered by SPR depletion concerns and demand uncertainties.
- Volatility vs Conflict Intensity: VIX decline (-1.14%) diverges from conflict escalation, suggesting market complacency or hedging saturation.
- Gas Prices vs Storage: TTF gas stable (+0.08%) with rising EU storage (+0.40%) shows supply buffer mitigating war risk impact on gas prices.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Persistent high-severity geopolitical alerts, particularly in the Middle East, continue to underpin elevated energy market risk. However, the modest retreat in global energy risk indices and volatility suggests markets are partially pricing in these risks amid concerns over U.S. SPR depletion and tanker security. The divergence between conflict intensity and market volatility signals potential complacency or hedging saturation, warranting close monitoring of supply-side disruptions. European gas storage gains provide a buffer against immediate shocks, but jet fuel supply risks pose a near-term industrial threat. The balance of probabilities favors continued market sensitivity to Middle East and Russia conflict developments, with a moderate chance of escalation or de-escalation influencing risk regimes in the coming fortnight. Traders should maintain vigilance on SPR levels, Saudi export flows, and military engagement metrics to anticipate volatility spikes and adjust portfolio exposures accordingly.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.07% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.08% between recorded quotes; GERI 17 → 16. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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