GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
17 / 100
LOW1 day 4 · 7 day 8
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 17 | Energy Risk Sep 2 — September 02, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 17 (LOW) on 2026-09-01. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 17; 1-day change: 4.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-01.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€73.61/MWh
+3.85%
Source date: 2026-09-01
VIX
16.34 points
+1.42 points
Source date: 2026-09-01
Brent Crude
$96.22/bbl
+5.75%
Source date: 2026-09-01
EUR/USD
1.1618 USD/EUR
+0.25%
Source date: 2026-09-01
EU Gas Storage
65.40%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-09-01
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US resumes strikes after tankers carrying Saudi oil attacked in Strait of Hormuz - AOL.com | 5 | 20.5% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| Putin Puts Price on Ukrainian Ship Strikes | 5 | 9.2% | MarineLink / Maritime Reporter |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Current Risk Tone: Low despite multiple high-severity war alerts (all 5/5).
- Regime Status: No formal regime classification currently active; market volatility (VIX 16.34) remains moderate.
- Contagion Status: Elevated geopolitical tensions in Middle East and Europe show signs of localized contagion but have not yet triggered a broader systemic risk regime.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 17
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Military actions in Iran and tanker attacks elevate maritime and energy supply risks, directly impacting European energy security via oil price transmission and gas market sensitivity.
- Europe → Global: Ukraine-Russia conflict escalates energy infrastructure risks, increasing global oil and gas price volatility.
- Global Maritime: 400 ships stranded in the Gulf amplify supply chain bottlenecks, potentially increasing global shipping insurance costs and delivery delays.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €73.61/MWh | +3.85% |
| VIX | 16.34 points | +1.42 points |
| Brent Crude | $96.22/bbl | +5.75% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1618 USD/EUR | +0.25% |
| EU Gas Storage | 65.40% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Despite maximum severity war alerts (5/5), risk tone remains low and volatility moderate, indicating a market pricing lag or resilience.
- Brent crude’s 5.75% jump is consistent with risk indices but may understate potential supply disruption if maritime blockades persist.
- EU gas storage remains stable (+0.3%), suggesting current inventories cushion immediate supply shocks, contrasting with rising geopolitical risk.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The current low risk tone masks underlying intensifying geopolitical conflicts in critical energy regions. The Middle East maritime risks and European energy infrastructure attacks are driving Brent crude and TTF gas prices higher, reflecting supply concerns. However, market volatility remains subdued, suggesting participants are either discounting longer-term escalation or relying on existing storage buffers. The probability of regime transition to medium risk is non-negligible, especially if tanker attacks and Ukraine strikes continue. Traders should monitor maritime congestion and energy infrastructure developments closely, as these are key triggers for rapid risk repricing and potential supply shocks. Hedging strategies focused on energy futures and volatility instruments
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +5.16% between recorded quotes; TTF +3.85% between recorded quotes; GERI 13 → 17. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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