GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
13 / 100
LOW1 day 6 · 7 day 3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
PENGASSAN Warns Regulatory: GERI 13 | Energy Risk Sep 1 — September 01, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 13 (LOW) on 2026-08-31. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 13; 1-day change: 6.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-31.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€70.88/MWh
+6.38%
Source date: 2026-08-31
VIX
14.92 points
+0.49 points
Source date: 2026-08-31
Brent Crude
$91.50/bbl
+1.40%
Source date: 2026-08-31
EUR/USD
1.1589 USD/EUR
+0.01%
Source date: 2026-08-31
EU Gas Storage
65.10%
+0.40 pp
Source date: 2026-08-31
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| PENGASSAN Warns Regulatory Uncertainty Could Delay Fresh Oil Investment - nigeriahousingmarket.com | 5 | 11.8% | Nigeria NNPC & LNG |
| Israeli strikes kill at least five Palestinians in Gaza City | 5 | 1.9% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk tone maintained despite recent geopolitical escalations.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion risk from Middle East and Eastern Europe conflicts; no systemic shock yet.
- Risk Indices: GERI Locked — free account to Locked — free account, EERI Locked — free account to Locked — free account, EGSI-M steady at Locked — free account, indicating rising but contained energy and geopolitical risk.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 13
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran-US strikes elevate risk premium on European energy supplies via potential supply disruptions and price volatility.
- Europe → Global: Russia’s threats of “massive strikes” on Ukraine’s energy assets increase European energy insecurity, spilling over into global oil and gas markets.
- North Africa → Global: Regulatory uncertainty in Nigeria dampens fresh oil investment, pressuring medium-term supply expectations.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €70.88/MWh | +6.38% |
| VIX | 14.92 points | +0.49 points |
| Brent Crude | $91.50/bbl | +1.40% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1589 USD/EUR | +0.01% |
| EU Gas Storage | 65.10% | +0.40 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Brent and TTF gas prices are rising in line with elevated risk indices, reflecting market pricing of geopolitical and regulatory threats.
- VIX remains subdued, indicating equity markets have not fully priced in escalation risk.
- EUR/USD stable, suggesting limited FX market reaction to energy risk.
- Interpretation: Energy markets are more sensitive and forward-looking on conflict risk than broader financial markets currently.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ algorithms identify a rising geopolitical risk environment primarily driven by Eastern European and Middle Eastern conflict dynamics. While the current risk tone remains low, the upward trajectory in energy risk indices and associated asset price moves signals increasing market sensitivity. The substantial rise in TTF gas (+6.38%) reflects heightened concerns over European energy security amid credible threats to Ukraine’s power infrastructure. Brent’s moderate gain (+1.40%) also underscores ongoing supply concerns linked to Middle East tensions and Nigerian investment uncertainty. Equity volatility (VIX) remains relatively muted, suggesting a lag in broader market risk repricing. Traders should prepare for potential regime shifts within the next fortnight, particularly if Russian strikes on energy assets intensify or Middle East hostilities escalate. Maintaining exposure to LNG and European gas storage metrics will be critical for anticipating short-term price shocks.
Key takeaway: The energy market is currently pricing in a moderate probability of supply disruptions and geopolitical escalation, warranting cautious positioning and close monitoring of conflict developments and regulatory signals in key producing regions.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +1.80% between recorded quotes; TTF +6.38% between recorded quotes; GERI 7 → 13. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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