GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
7 / 100
LOW1 day -3 · 7 day -3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Russia-Ukraine War Latest: GERI 7 | Energy Risk Aug 31 — August 31, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 7 (LOW) on 2026-08-30. The brief covers 14 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 7; 1-day change: -3.
- 14 alerts considered from 2026-08-30.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€66.63/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-28
VIX
14.43 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-28
Brent Crude
$89.88/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-28
EUR/USD
1.1587 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-28
EU Gas Storage
64.70%
+0.00 pp
Source date: 2026-08-30
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone, reflected by a sharp drop in the Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) from 10 to 7 (-30%) despite persistent high-level geopolitical threats.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion from Middle East to Europe, driven by escalating conflict-related alerts, but limited immediate market spillover observed.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 7
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Europe: Russia’s threats of massive strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure elevate risk perception but have not yet triggered direct supply disruptions.
- Middle East: US strikes on Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island increase military tensions, raising risk for Gulf energy transit routes.
- Spillover: Elevated Middle East conflict risk marginally pressures European energy security sentiment, but no immediate price contagion to gas markets.
- Probability of escalation spillover to EU energy markets: ~25%, based on persistent war alerts but stable storage and gas prices.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €66.63/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 14.43 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $89.88/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1587 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 64.70% | +0.00 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Brent crude’s Locked — free account rise aligns with elevated geopolitical risk (EERI Locked — free account), consistent with oil’s sensitivity to Middle East conflict.
- TTF gas flat pricing diverges from elevated EERI, indicating market confidence in EU storage and supply resilience.
- EUR/USD depreciation signals market risk aversion not fully reflected in volatility index (VIX) or gas prices.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ Custom Algorithms identify a complex risk environment where geopolitical tensions remain elevated but market pricing reflects a stabilizing risk regime. Oil markets are pricing in Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflict risks with a moderate premium, while European gas markets show resilience supported by strong storage levels. The divergence between risk alerts and gas price stability suggests market confidence in supply buffers but warrants close monitoring for sudden shifts triggered by military actions. Currency markets are more sensitive to risk-off sentiment, signaling investor caution. The probability of escalation remains material, justifying tactical hedges in oil and power sectors while maintaining flexibility for rapid regime shifts.
---
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +2.02% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.00% between recorded quotes; GERI 10 → 7. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.