GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
15 / 100
LOW1 day 3 · 7 day -1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Houthis Claim Missile: GERI 15 | Energy Risk Aug 25 — August 25, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 15 (LOW) on 2026-08-24. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 15; 1-day change: 3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-24.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€68.44/MWh
+3.84%
Source date: 2026-08-24
VIX
15.85 points
+0.72 points
Source date: 2026-08-24
Brent Crude
$92.09/bbl
-1.43%
Source date: 2026-08-24
EUR/USD
1.1682 USD/EUR
+0.03%
Source date: 2026-08-24
EU Gas Storage
63.30%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-08-24
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis Claim Missile Strike on Saudi Oil Tanker in Red Sea - Kurdistan24 | 5 | 19.3% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| Trump Administration Launches Sweeping New Iran Sanctions Campaign Targeting Shipping and Oil Trade | 5 | 15.7% | gCaptain Maritime |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk environment persists despite geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Elevated contagion signals from Middle East conflict and sanctions, but contained within region. No broad market spillover yet.
- Market Volatility: VIX up modestly (+0.72), indicating slight increase in equity market uncertainty.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 15
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global Energy Markets:
- Houthis missile strike on Saudi tanker and Iran sanctions increase risk premium on crude supply routes, pressuring Brent crude (-1.43%).
- South America:
- High-risk drilling bets by Pemex and Petrobras add localized supply risk but limited global spillover.
- Europe:
- Norway’s production warning and EU gas storage slight build (+0.3%) offset by rising TTF gas prices (+3.84%), indicating supply tightness and weather-driven demand.
- North America:
- El Niño’s reshaping of natural gas weather risks suggests potential volatility in demand patterns ahead of winter.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €68.44/MWh | +3.84% |
| VIX | 15.85 points | +0.72 points |
| Brent Crude | $92.09/bbl | -1.43% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1682 USD/EUR | +0.03% |
| EU Gas Storage | 63.30% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Brent Price: Despite high-level Middle East conflict alerts and sanctions, Brent crude declined 1.43%, indicating a disconnect likely due to demand concerns or market positioning.
- TTF Gas vs EU Storage: Rising gas prices (+3.84%) contrast with modest storage increase (+0.3%), highlighting market focus on supply risk and weather uncertainty rather than immediate inventory pressure.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ analysis indicates that while headline geopolitical risks in the Middle East and sanctions on Iran have intensified, market pricing in Brent crude suggests a cautious stance possibly reflecting demand concerns or market positioning. The disconnect between rising risk indices and falling crude prices warrants close monitoring for potential rapid repricing if supply disruptions materialize. European gas markets are tightening amid Norway’s production concerns and El Niño-driven weather risks, supporting higher TTF prices and potential power sector impacts. The low overall risk regime may transition to medium risk within weeks if conflict escalates or sanctions enforcement broadens, necessitating proactive risk mitigation strategies. Traders should prioritize dynamic hedging in crude and LNG exposures, monitor storage trends, and remain alert to geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.08% between recorded quotes; TTF +3.84% between recorded quotes; GERI 12 → 15. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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