GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
12 / 100
LOW1 day 2 · 7 day -4
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Diesel Crisis Threatens: GERI 12 | Energy Risk Aug 24 — August 24, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 12 (LOW) on 2026-08-23. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 12; 1-day change: 2.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-23.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€65.91/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-21
VIX
15.13 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-21
Brent Crude
$93.10/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-21
EUR/USD
1.1678 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-21
EU Gas Storage
63.00%
+1.30 pp
Source date: 2026-08-23
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diesel Crisis Threatens to Outlast the Middle East War | 5 | 29.0% | OilPrice.com |
| Pemex and Petrobras Bet Big on High-Risk High-Reward Drilling Off Mexico - Yahoo Finance | 5 | 19.2% | Brazil Petrobras & Energy |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk environment sustained; no regime classification triggered.
- Contagion Status: Regional tensions in Middle East and South America persist but have not escalated into broader contagion.
- Risk Tone: Low, supported by modest index movements and stable market pricing.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 12
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: Diesel supply crisis and healthcare collapse in Gaza remain primary risk sources. Potential to disrupt regional energy flows, especially diesel exports.
- South America: High-risk drilling by Pemex and Petrobras introduces operational risk but limited immediate contagion.
- North America: Wildfire-induced displacement in Nevada adds localized geopolitical stress but minimal energy market impact.
- Global: Super El Niño threat introduces systemic risk to food, water, and trade, with indirect energy demand implications.
- Spillover: Middle East tensions continue to exert upward pressure on global diesel and crude prices; South American drilling risks have limited cross-regional spillover currently.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €65.91/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 15.13 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $93.10/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1678 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 63.00% | +1.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Elevated geopolitical alerts (5/5 severity) in Middle East and South America contrast with muted crude and gas price reactions.
- Suggests market is pricing in risk containment or delayed impact, creating a divergence that could correct if crises intensify.
- VIX decline supports this complacency, indicating potential underpricing of tail risk.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite the presence of multiple high-severity geopolitical alerts, the overall risk tone remains low with markets exhibiting resilience and limited price reaction. The diesel crisis in the Middle East is the primary risk driver, yet current market pricing and storage levels suggest anticipation of contained disruption. The divergence between elevated alert severity and subdued market response indicates potential complacency; close monitoring of risk indicators is warranted. The probability of regime transition to moderate risk is non-negligible, emphasizing the need for tactical hedging in diesel-related exposures and readiness for volatility spikes. South American drilling risks and global Super El Niño threats represent secondary but material risk factors over medium term.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.53% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.14% between recorded quotes; GERI 10 → 12. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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