GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
15 / 100
LOW1 day 0 · 7 day -1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 15 | Energy Risk Aug 26 — August 26, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 15 (LOW) on 2026-08-25. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 15; 1-day change: 0.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-25.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€63.97/MWh
-6.53%
Source date: 2026-08-25
VIX
15.45 points
-0.40 points
Source date: 2026-08-25
Brent Crude
$87.08/bbl
-5.48%
Source date: 2026-08-25
EUR/USD
1.1668 USD/EUR
-0.11%
Source date: 2026-08-25
EU Gas Storage
63.50%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-08-25
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran Threatens to Seize Cargo and Fine Ships in Strait of Hormuz - townhall.com | 5 | 16.0% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| US not planning new strikes on Iran, may focus on other means of pressure instead — Axios | 5 | 12.1% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low, unchanged from prior day.
- Regime Status: No clear regime identified; market remains in stable mode despite geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Limited contagion; regional geopolitical risks contained without broad market spillover.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 15
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → North America: Elevated geopolitical risk in Middle East (Iran’s threats, Gaza conflict) has not translated into increased risk perception in North America; crude prices fell sharply (-5.48%), indicating market discounting of immediate supply disruption.
- Europe: Moderate stress from Spain’s migrant funding request and UK fiscal pressures, but EU gas storage rising (+0.20%), mitigating near-term supply concerns.
- Russia/US: US focus shifting away from military strikes on Iran reduces immediate cross-regional military escalation risk.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €63.97/MWh | -6.53% |
| VIX | 15.45 points | -0.40 points |
| Brent Crude | $87.08/bbl | -5.48% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1668 USD/EUR | -0.11% |
| EU Gas Storage | 63.50% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: High geopolitical alerts (5/5) contrast with sharp declines in Brent and TTF prices, indicating a divergence where market pricing currently discounts near-term supply disruption risk.
- Forward Curve: Analysts’ pushback on 2028 natural gas shortage aligns with forward curve stability, reinforcing market’s medium-term complacency.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite heightened geopolitical alerts, the market’s sharp decline in Brent and TTF prices signals skepticism about near-term supply disruptions. The US decision to avoid new strikes on Iran reduces immediate military escalation risk, reflected in the Locked — free account-point drop in EERI. European gas storage improvements and pipeline expansions in the US further cushion energy markets from shocks. However, supply-side risks from Canadian oil sands cuts and ongoing Middle East tensions maintain a moderate tail risk profile. Traders should monitor geopolitical developments closely but can currently position for stable to slightly easing energy prices, with a readiness to hedge against sudden escalations.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -5.44% between recorded quotes; TTF -6.53% between recorded quotes; GERI 15 → 15. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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