GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
10 / 100
LOW1 day -9 · 7 day -8
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Tropical Storm Moke: GERI 10 | Energy Risk Aug 23 — August 23, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 10 (LOW) on 2026-08-22. The brief covers 15 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 10; 1-day change: -9.
- 15 alerts considered from 2026-08-22.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€66.00/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-21
VIX
15.13 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-21
Brent Crude
$93.60/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-21
EUR/USD
1.1678 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-21
EU Gas Storage
61.70%
-0.60 pp
Source date: 2026-08-22
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Storm Moke advances towards Hawaii with heavy rain, strong winds | 5 | 1.9% | Al Jazeera News |
| Israeli strikes kill two and injure others as Gaza attacks continue | 5 | 1.9% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone confirmed by declining GERI (Locked — free account) and EERI (Locked — free account) indices.
- Contagion Status: Persistent geopolitical tensions maintain baseline elevated risk but with reduced volatility (VIX down 0.88 to 15.13).
- Market Reaction: Brent unchanged at $93.6; TTF gas down 0.45% to €66.0/MWh; EU gas storage slightly lower at 61.7%.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 10
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: High-intensity conflict (Israeli strikes, Syrian base attacks, Iran-US sanctions) sustains regional risk but limited contagion to Europe or global energy markets.
- Europe: Russian-Ukrainian hostilities continue with missile strikes and military asset destruction, but no escalation beyond current levels.
- Global: Tropical Storm Moke poses localized physical risk to Hawaii energy infrastructure, limited global energy market impact.
- Spillover Summary: War-related risks contained regionally; no evidence of cross-regional contagion amplifying systemic energy risk.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €66.00/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 15.13 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $93.60/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1678 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 61.70% | -0.60 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Despite maximum severity alerts (5/5) in war and sanctions categories, Brent crude remains flat, indicating market saturation or risk premium already priced in.
- TTF gas and EU storage show slight declines, consistent with reduced European risk index but no strong rebound, suggesting cautious market positioning.
- VIX decline signals reduced fear, diverging from headline severity, implying market confidence in conflict containment or risk fatigue.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite headline-grabbing war and sanction alerts at maximum severity, the energy market exhibits a stabilizing risk environment. The decline in GERI and EERI indices alongside subdued price reactions suggests that markets have largely priced in current geopolitical tensions. The slight drawdown in European gas storage and modest price declines imply cautious optimism but underline persistent supply vulnerability. The key risk remains potential escalation in the Middle East or renewed conflict in Ukraine, which could rapidly shift the regime to heightened risk. Traders should monitor geopolitical developments closely, especially unanticipated escalations, while maintaining readiness for volatility spikes. The current environment favors measured risk management with an emphasis on scenario planning rather than aggressive positioning.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.45% between recorded quotes; GERI 19 → 10. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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