GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
19 / 100
LOW1 day 1 · 7 day 1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
China's New Five-Year: GERI 19 | Energy Risk Aug 22 — August 22, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 19 (LOW) on 2026-08-21. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 19; 1-day change: 1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-21.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€66.30/MWh
+1.86%
Source date: 2026-08-21
VIX
15.13 points
-0.88 points
Source date: 2026-08-21
Brent Crude
$93.60/bbl
+0.50%
Source date: 2026-08-21
EUR/USD
1.1678 USD/EUR
+0.04%
Source date: 2026-08-21
EU Gas Storage
62.30%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-08-21
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| China's New Five-Year Plan Preps the Nation for Peak Oil | 5 | 18.7% | OilPrice.com |
| Can a humanitarian disaster be averted in Somalia? | 5 | 5.1% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low, supported by stable VIX at 15.13 (-0.88%) and modest changes in energy prices.
- Regime Status: No clear regime classification currently; market remains in a low-volatility environment despite geopolitical alerts.
- Contagion Status: Limited contagion observed; regional tensions have not escalated into broad market stress.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 19
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: Elevated risk from Saudi-US military actions in Iraq and Iran sanctions threats, driving increased Brent (+0.50%) and regional energy risk.
- Europe: Nuclear cooling crisis and low river levels pose supply disruption risk, contributing to TTF gas price rise (+1.86%) and slight increase in EU gas storage (+0.30%).
- Global: Panama Canal draught restrictions and humanitarian concerns in Somalia add logistical and security uncertainties, but limited direct market impact so far.
- Russia: Geopolitical and sanction threats persist but show declining event risk, suggesting market adaptation or discounting.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €66.30/MWh | +1.86% |
| VIX | 15.13 points | -0.88 points |
| Brent Crude | $93.60/bbl | +0.50% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1678 USD/EUR | +0.04% |
| EU Gas Storage | 62.30% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Despite high alert severity (5/5) on multiple fronts, market volatility and energy prices show muted responses, indicating a divergence where risk is priced in or market is discounting escalation probability.
- EERI decline vs GERI rise: Suggests that while event frequency/intensity perception is down, underlying risk remains elevated, particularly geopolitical.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ algorithms identify a paradoxical environment where severe geopolitical and supply disruption alerts coexist with low market volatility and moderate price moves. This suggests that markets have largely priced in current risks or anticipate limited escalation. However, the elevated GERI and stable EGSI-M indices signal persistent underlying vulnerabilities, particularly in the Middle East and Europe. Traders should remain vigilant for sudden regime shifts triggered by conflict escalation or supply shocks, especially given the Locked — free account-Locked — free account transition probabilities. Positioning for potential volatility spikes in Brent and TTF gas, alongside monitoring storage and logistical constraints, is advisable. The low VIX and EUR/USD stability currently provide little hedge against sudden risk materialization.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: Middle East Escalation · Probability: 35% illustrative weight, not a calibrated forecast
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.39% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.86% between recorded quotes; GERI 18 → 19. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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