GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
18 / 100
LOW1 day -1 · 7 day -1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Yemen strikes targets: GERI 18 | Energy Risk Aug 21 — August 21, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 18 (LOW) on 2026-08-20. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 18; 1-day change: -1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-20.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€65.09/MWh
+2.39%
Source date: 2026-08-20
VIX
16.01 points
+1.12 points
Source date: 2026-08-20
Brent Crude
$93.24/bbl
+1.73%
Source date: 2026-08-20
EUR/USD
1.1674 USD/EUR
+0.81%
Source date: 2026-08-20
EU Gas Storage
62.00%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-08-20
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yemen strikes targets in Saudi Arabia’s Najran, warns of ‘more painful’ attacks - PressTV | 5 | 11.2% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| US pummels Cuban economy with new sanctions on mining, construction | 5 | 4.9% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Current Regime: Stabilizing risk tone with mixed signals.
- Contagion Status: Elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe maintain cross-regional risk spillovers but no systemic escalation detected.
- Key Drivers: Middle East conflict escalation, sanctions on Cuba, and European energy infrastructure risks.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 18
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: Yemen attacks and Iran tensions sustain upward pressure on oil prices and global supply concerns, driving risk premiums higher.
- Europe → Global: Delays in Ukrainian missile fuel production and Romanian military actions near energy projects add to regional energy security risk, influencing EU gas prices.
- Global → Regional: US sanctions on Cuba and threats of economic isolation for Iran’s partners amplify global trade and energy market uncertainties.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €65.09/MWh | +2.39% |
| VIX | 16.01 points | +1.12 points |
| Brent Crude | $93.24/bbl | +1.73% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1674 USD/EUR | +0.81% |
| EU Gas Storage | 62.00% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Brent crude price (Locked — free account) aligns with elevated EERI (Locked — free account), confirming market pricing of Middle East conflict risk.
- TTF Gas price increase (+2.39%) slightly outpaces modest EU gas storage build (+0.20%), indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical and supply disruption risks beyond fundamentals.
- VIX increase (+1.12%) suggests moderate risk aversion consistent with geopolitical alerts but not yet signaling systemic volatility spike.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The risk environment remains fragile with a stabilizing tone but elevated event risk primarily from Middle East conflicts and sanctions regimes. Brent crude and TTF gas prices are responding to these geopolitical risks, reflecting market concerns over supply disruptions and energy security. The slight decline in GERI suggests some moderation in broader energy risk, but the sharp rise in EERI underscores concentrated event-driven volatility. Traders should prepare for potential regime shifts toward escalation, especially if Yemen and Iran tensions intensify or if sanctions expand. European energy markets remain vulnerable due to infrastructure risks and limited storage buffers. Diversified hedging strategies and close monitoring of geopolitical developments are recommended to navigate the current environment.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +1.50% between recorded quotes; TTF +2.39% between recorded quotes; GERI 19 → 18. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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