GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
19 / 100
LOW1 day 0 · 7 day 0
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hope Fades, Traders: GERI 19 | Energy Risk Aug 20 — August 20, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 19 (LOW) on 2026-08-19. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 19; 1-day change: 0.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-19.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€63.57/MWh
-0.98%
Source date: 2026-08-19
VIX
14.89 points
-0.95 points
Source date: 2026-08-19
Brent Crude
$91.86/bbl
+0.55%
Source date: 2026-08-19
EUR/USD
1.1579 USD/EUR
-0.03%
Source date: 2026-08-19
EU Gas Storage
61.80%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-08-19
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk environment maintained; no regime shift detected.
- Contagion Status: Regional tensions in the Middle East show localized risk spikes but have not propagated globally.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 19
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: High localized risk from war-related disruptions (Iran, Israel, Saudi tankers targeted).
- Asia: Elevated risk perception due to seafarer pressure transiting Strait of Hormuz, signaling supply chain stress.
- Europe: Indirect risk via piracy and freight route changes; no direct conflict but heightened vigilance.
- Russia: Increased geopolitical tension from Israel-Turkey military posturing in Syria.
- Spillover: Middle East tensions remain contained regionally with limited contagion to Europe and Asia, but global freight and LNG supply chains show vulnerability.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €63.57/MWh | -0.98% |
| VIX | 14.89 points | -0.95 points |
| Brent Crude | $91.86/bbl | +0.55% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1579 USD/EUR | -0.03% |
| EU Gas Storage | 61.80% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Oil prices rising (Locked — free account) align with high Middle East geopolitical stress (EGSI-M Locked — free account), confirming market sensitivity to supply risk.
- Gas prices down (-0.98%) despite Middle East tensions suggest market confidence in EU storage buffer (61.8%) and alternative supply routes.
- VIX decline contrasts with headline war risk, indicating market complacency or hedging saturation.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk regime, the Middle East remains a hotspot with elevated geopolitical stress that is increasingly impacting oil and LNG markets. The recent tanker attacks and shipping tensions in the Strait of Hormuz pose a tangible supply risk, reflected in rising Brent crude prices and tight diesel crack spreads. However, European gas storage levels provide a partial cushion against immediate supply shocks, explaining the modest decline in TTF gas prices. Market volatility remains subdued, suggesting investors have either priced in current risks or are awaiting clearer signals. The probability of escalation to a wider regional conflict remains moderate but contained, with global contagion unlikely in the near term. Traders should monitor maritime security developments closely, LNG supply chain disruptions, and diesel crack spreads as leading indicators of tightening energy markets.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.58% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.98% between recorded quotes; GERI 19 → 19. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.