GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
19 / 100
LOW1 day 7 · 7 day 1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Tensions Rise as: GERI 19 | Energy Risk Aug 19 — August 19, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 19 (LOW) on 2026-08-18. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 19; 1-day change: 7.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-18.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€64.20/MWh
+2.72%
Source date: 2026-08-18
VIX
15.84 points
+0.65 points
Source date: 2026-08-18
Brent Crude
$91.33/bbl
+0.25%
Source date: 2026-08-18
EUR/USD
1.1583 USD/EUR
+0.08%
Source date: 2026-08-18
EU Gas Storage
61.60%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-08-18
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tensions Rise as UAE Detects Missiles from Iran - Devdiscourse | 5 | 11.7% | ADNOC & UAE Energy |
| Russian strike damages DTEK thermal power plant, forces halt in operations - kyivindependent.com | 5 | 12.3% | Ukraine Energy & Infrastructure |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk environment sustained despite escalation in geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion from Middle East conflict signals into European energy security concerns.
- Key Drivers: Middle East missile threats (UAE/Iran), intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and US sanctions contribute to elevated risk perception but have not triggered regime shift.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 19
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Missile detections and threats in the Gulf region raise global oil supply disruption risk, indirectly pressuring European energy markets already stressed by Ukraine conflict.
- Europe → Global: Russian strikes on Ukrainian thermal power plants and nuclear facilities increase risk premiums in European gas and electricity markets, spilling over to global energy prices.
- Global Sanctions Impact: US sanctions on ICC leadership add geopolitical complexity but limited direct energy market impact currently.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €64.20/MWh | +2.72% |
| VIX | 15.84 points | +0.65 points |
| Brent Crude | $91.33/bbl | +0.25% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1583 USD/EUR | +0.08% |
| EU Gas Storage | 61.60% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: EERI surged Locked — free account points indicating heightened European risk, yet Brent crude rose modestly (Locked — free account), suggesting market is cautious but not fully pricing in extended supply disruptions.
- **TTF Gas price increase (+2.72%) aligns more closely with European risk spike, indicating regional market sensitivity.
- **VIX remains subdued relative to geopolitical alerts, reflecting low overall market volatility regime.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ algorithms identify a scenario of elevated but contained geopolitical risk with asymmetric impacts across regions and sectors. The sharp rise in European risk indices reflects acute vulnerability to Russian military actions disrupting thermal power generation and nuclear safety fears. Concurrent Middle East tensions contribute to a cautious oil market pricing in a potential prolonged Hormuz crisis, though price moves remain measured. The divergence between European gas price spikes and modest oil price gains suggests market segmentation and differing supply risk perceptions. The low volatility regime and stable EU gas storage provide some buffer, but the probability of regime transition to medium risk is material over the short term. Traders should prioritize monitoring missile activity and infrastructure strike reports, adjusting exposure to European power and gas markets accordingly while maintaining vigilance on Middle East developments.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.30% between recorded quotes; TTF +2.72% between recorded quotes; GERI 12 → 19. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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