GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
12 / 100
LOW1 day -6 · 7 day -7
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Syria launches probe: GERI 12 | Energy Risk Aug 18 — August 18, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 12 (LOW) on 2026-08-17. The brief covers 18 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 12; 1-day change: -6.
- 18 alerts considered from 2026-08-17.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€62.50/MWh
+0.32%
Source date: 2026-08-17
VIX
15.19 points
+0.94 points
Source date: 2026-08-17
Brent Crude
$91.06/bbl
+2.82%
Source date: 2026-08-17
EUR/USD
1.1574 USD/EUR
+0.01%
Source date: 2026-08-17
EU Gas Storage
61.40%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-08-17
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Syria launches probe into death of ‘White Helmet’ rescuer in police custody | 5 | 5.0% | Al Jazeera News |
| Russia Receives First Gasoline Cargo From India as Fuel Shortages Spread | 5 | 20.7% | OilPrice.com |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone amid mixed geopolitical and energy market signals.
- Contagion Status: Elevated cross-regional tensions, but limited immediate contagion beyond Middle East and Europe.
- Key Drivers: War-related alerts dominate risk landscape; energy supply concerns persist but are partially mitigated by alternative sourcing.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 12
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Heightened risk from Strait of Hormuz threats and Red Sea strikes is pushing European risk higher, reflected in EERI spike.
- Europe → Russia: UK’s move to arm Ukraine increases Russia-related tensions, adding to volatility in Russian energy supply perceptions.
- Asia → Middle East: Asian refiners’ reluctance to receive Saudi shipments in Red Sea indicates risk aversion spreading to logistics and refining sectors.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €62.50/MWh | +0.32% |
| VIX | 15.19 points | +0.94 points |
| Brent Crude | $91.06/bbl | +2.82% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1574 USD/EUR | +0.01% |
| EU Gas Storage | 61.40% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Brent crude’s 2.82% rise outpaces TTF gas and storage increments, indicating market pricing is more sensitive to oil supply disruptions than to gas storage improvements.
- VIX increase (Locked — free account) moderate compared to EERI surge (Locked — free account), suggesting market volatility has not fully priced in European geopolitical risk escalation.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The risk environment remains complex with stabilizing global energy risk indices but sharply rising European geopolitical risk due to Middle East and Russia-related developments. Brent crude’s price increase reflects market sensitivity to supply disruptions from ongoing Middle East maritime strikes and Russian fuel shortages mitigated by Indian gasoline shipments. The divergence between elevated European risk indexes and moderate volatility suggests potential underpricing of geopolitical risk in financial markets. Traders should remain vigilant for escalation triggers in the Red Sea and Ukraine conflict zones, as these could rapidly shift the regime into higher risk, driving commodity price spikes and volatility. Storage build in Europe provides some cushion but is unlikely to fully offset supply risks if tensions escalate.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +2.87% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.32% between recorded quotes; GERI 18 → 12. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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