GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
18 / 100
LOW1 day -2 · 7 day -2
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Iran Says Qatar: GERI 18 | Energy Risk Aug 17 — August 17, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 18 (LOW) on 2026-08-16. The brief covers 13 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 18; 1-day change: -2.
- 13 alerts considered from 2026-08-16.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€62.30/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-14
VIX
14.25 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-14
Brent Crude
$88.52/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-14
EUR/USD
1.1573 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-14
EU Gas Storage
61.10%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-08-16
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran Says Qatar Is Holding Pilots as Israel Strikes Lebanon and Houthis Attack Yemen Port - Dunyo.info | 5 | 11.6% | ADNOC & UAE Energy |
| Strait of Hormuz standoff: Three vessels attacked in 72 hours as threat stays severe - Gulf News | 5 | 11.1% | ADNOC & UAE Energy |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone, with GERI down 2 points to 18, indicating moderate easing of geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Low cross-regional contagion; EERI sharply declined by Locked — free account points to Locked — free account, signaling reduced systemic risk outside the Middle East hotspot.
- Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission (EGSI-M): Slightly elevated at Locked — free account, reflecting persistent but contained conflict-related disruptions.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 18
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: Core risk driver with multiple high-severity war alerts (Iran-Qatar pilot detainment, repeated vessel attacks in Hormuz, Yemen conflict escalation).
- North America: Tariff-related conflict risks persist but remain isolated, minimal spillover to energy markets.
- Global: Political violence in Zambia noted but limited direct energy market impact.
- Spillover: Containment evident; no significant risk transmission to European or Asian markets beyond localized price impacts.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €62.30/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 14.25 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $88.52/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1573 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 61.10% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Despite high-level war alerts in the Middle East, Brent crude prices declined slightly (-0.34%), indicating market skepticism about near-term supply disruption severity.
- Gas prices rising (+1.42%) suggest regional supply concerns or seasonal demand factors outweighing geopolitical risk signals.
- VIX decline (-0.38%) confirms reduced market fear, diverging from headline conflict intensity.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Middle East geopolitical risk remains the dominant driver but is currently contained within a stabilizing regime. Market pricing reflects cautious optimism, with Brent crude marginally down despite severe conflict alerts, indicating confidence in supply resilience supported by EU gas storage and limited spillover. However, persistent attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Yemen conflict pose a material upside risk to energy prices and supply chain costs. Traders should monitor maritime security developments closely and maintain readiness for volatility spikes, especially in LNG shipping and insurance premiums. The reduced economic risk index suggests markets are discounting limited broader economic fallout at this stage. Overall, risk management should balance the potential for sudden escalation against the current stabilization signals.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.34% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.42% between recorded quotes; GERI 20 → 18. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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