GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
20 / 100
LOW1 day -1 · 7 day 0
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 20 | Energy Risk Aug 16 — August 16, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 20 (LOW) on 2026-08-15. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 20; 1-day change: -1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-15.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€61.43/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-14
VIX
14.25 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-14
Brent Crude
$88.82/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-14
EUR/USD
1.1573 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-14
EU Gas Storage
60.80%
+0.40 pp
Source date: 2026-08-15
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz tensions escalate; UAE blames Iran for ADNOC attack - Kuwait Times | 5 | 19.5% | ADNOC & UAE Energy |
| Two UAE Oil Vessels Under Attack in Straight of Hormuz as Tensions Rise - Barlaman Today | 5 | 3.5% | ADNOC & UAE Energy |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Regime: Stabilizing
Contagion Status: Elevated regional war risk in Middle East with limited cross-region spillover; global energy markets showing resilience despite geopolitical shocks.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: High risk of supply disruption due to Strait of Hormuz attacks and vessel redirections; UN warnings on food crisis amplify global economic impact risk.
- Russia/Black Sea → Europe: Ukrainian military actions and Russian oil sector strain add localized risk but limited contagion to global oil prices so far.
- Europe: Gas storage increasing (+0.40%) and TTF gas prices slightly down (-0.11%) suggest European energy markets are absorbing shocks with minimal spillover from Middle East tensions.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €61.43/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 14.25 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $88.82/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1573 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 60.80% | +0.40 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Despite multiple 5/5 severity war alerts, Brent crude price increased only modestly (+0.26%), indicating partial market pricing-in of risk or offsetting factors such as stable EU gas storage and lower volatility (VIX -0.38).
- EERI decline (Locked — free account) contrasts with persistent high Middle East risk, suggesting market focus may be shifting away from event frequency to event impact or market fundamentals.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The energy market is currently navigating a complex risk landscape where severe geopolitical events in the Middle East coexist with signs of market stabilization in Europe. The persistent high-severity alerts around the Strait of Hormuz, including attacks on UAE vessels and Iranian transit warnings, maintain elevated risk premiums on oil prices, though the modest Brent price increase (+0.26%) suggests partial market absorption of these shocks. Concurrently, European gas markets show resilience with increasing storage and stable TTF prices, mitigating immediate supply concerns despite ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict dynamics.
The divergence between the sharp drop in EERI (Locked — free account) and sustained Middle East risk points to market differentiation between event frequency and perceived impact, with investors possibly anticipating containment or offsetting factors. The moderate probability (~Locked — free account) of regime escalation underscores the need for vigilance around further conflict escalation, especially given the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for global energy flows.
Portfolio strategies should balance exposure to oil price upside against the buffer provided by European gas storage and consider defensive hedges against volatility spikes. Monitoring multi-week risk path indicators, particularly vessel attack frequency and transit restrictions, will be critical for timely risk adjustments.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.11% between recorded quotes; GERI 21 → 20. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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