GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
21 / 100
MODERATE1 day 0 · 7 day 1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 21 | Energy Risk Aug 15 — August 15, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 21 (MODERATE) on 2026-08-14. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 21; 1-day change: 0.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-14.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€61.50/MWh
+1.55%
Source date: 2026-08-14
VIX
14.25 points
-0.38 points
Source date: 2026-08-14
Brent Crude
$88.82/bbl
+1.96%
Source date: 2026-08-14
EUR/USD
1.1573 USD/EUR
+0.37%
Source date: 2026-08-14
EU Gas Storage
60.40%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-08-14
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tensions at Strait of Hormuz: ADNOC Vessel Attacked - Devdiscourse | 5 | 17.8% | ADNOC & UAE Energy |
| Tensions at Sea: ADNOC Vessel Attacked in Strait of Hormuz - Devdiscourse | 5 | 18.0% | ADNOC & UAE Energy |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk tone maintained despite heightened Middle East tensions.
- Contagion Status: Rising geopolitical risk in Middle East (war category) contained regionally; limited contagion to Europe and North America so far.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 21
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Elevated war risk in Middle East pushes oil prices higher (+1.96% Brent), indirectly pressuring European gas markets (+1.55% TTF).
- Middle East → North Africa: Nigeria peace accord may reduce regional war risk, but overall North African risk remains moderate.
- Europe → Global: Ukraine personnel shortages and anti-missile system deficits limit European defensive capacity, potentially increasing spillover risk if conflict escalates.
- North America: Devon’s warning on Permian gas volatility suggests potential internal market shocks, but no direct contagion from Middle East tensions yet.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €61.50/MWh | +1.55% |
| VIX | 14.25 points | -0.38 points |
| Brent Crude | $88.82/bbl | +1.96% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1573 USD/EUR | +0.37% |
| EU Gas Storage | 60.40% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Despite multiple 5/5 war alerts, overall GERI remains stable, suggesting market has priced in baseline risk.
- Brent crude’s near Locked — free account gain aligns with elevated EERI, indicating oil markets are responsive to geopolitical stress.
- VIX decline contrasts with rising war risk, implying equity markets are not yet pricing broader systemic risk.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS WITH PORTFOLIO IMPLICATIONS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The energy market is currently navigating a complex risk environment where severe geopolitical events in the Middle East have sharply increased the European Energy Risk Index, yet the broader global energy risk perception remains stable. The elevated EERI reflects acute supply disruption threats centered on the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf region, pushing Brent crude prices higher by nearly Locked — free account. European gas markets are also responding, albeit more moderately, signaling concerns about secondary supply impacts. The disconnect between rising geopolitical risk and stable equity volatility suggests energy-specific risk is not yet systemic. Market participants should prepare for a potential regime shift to moderate risk if tensions escalate further, with a Locked — free account probability in the near term. Key risk triggers include further attacks in the Gulf, environmental fallout from the oil spill, and any escalation in Ukraine conflict that could widen regional contagion. Portfolio strategies should balance exposure to energy price upside with protective hedges given the uncertain trajectory of Middle East conflict and its global ripple effects.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +2.09% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.55% between recorded quotes; GERI 21 → 21. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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