GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
21 / 100
MODERATE1 day 2 · 7 day 1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
ADNOC Unbound: War,: GERI 21 | Energy Risk Aug 14 — August 14, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 21 (MODERATE) on 2026-08-13. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 21; 1-day change: 2.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-13.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€60.56/MWh
+0.60%
Source date: 2026-08-13
VIX
14.63 points
+0.08 points
Source date: 2026-08-13
Brent Crude
$87.00/bbl
-1.61%
Source date: 2026-08-13
EUR/USD
1.1530 USD/EUR
-0.12%
Source date: 2026-08-13
EU Gas Storage
60.20%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-08-13
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADNOC Unbound: War, OPEC Exit Launch Emirates Oil Giant on Quest for Growth - EnergyNow | 5 | 28.7% | ADNOC & UAE Energy |
| Houthis fire two missiles at military airfield near Bab el-Mandeb Strait | 5 | 8.2% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk tone maintained despite geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion risk from Middle East conflicts, contained by stable European gas storage and muted volatility.
- Key Insight: Elevated geopolitical alerts contrast with softening Brent prices and stable volatility, indicating market resilience but latent risk.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 21
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: High-intensity war alerts (missile strikes, refinery attacks) increase regional risk; potential to disrupt oil supply chains.
- Middle East → Europe: Limited spillover so far; EU gas storage up 0.3% and TTF gas prices only modestly higher (+0.6%).
- North Africa → Global: Rising Tigray tensions add localized risk but low immediate contagion.
- North America: Heat-driven natural gas price surge (+5/5 alert) contained regionally, no significant spillover.
Overall, risk contagion is regionally concentrated with limited transmission to global energy markets.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €60.56/MWh | +0.60% |
| VIX | 14.63 points | +0.08 points |
| Brent Crude | $87.00/bbl | -1.61% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1530 USD/EUR | -0.12% |
| EU Gas Storage | 60.20% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Brent: Elevated Middle East war alerts and EGSI-M contrast with Brent’s Locked — free account decline, indicating a divergence between geopolitical risk and oil price reaction.
- Risk Signal vs Volatility: VIX nearly flat despite high-severity war alerts suggests market complacency or anticipation of limited conflict escalation.
- Interpretation: Market may be pricing in short-term disruptions but expects no sustained supply shock or demand destruction.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk tone, the concentration of high-severity war alerts in the Middle East, particularly targeting ADNOC assets and Aramco infrastructure, represents a latent supply risk. The market’s muted response in Brent crude and volatility indices suggests expectations of limited or short-lived disruption. However, the potential for escalation, compounded by structural shifts such as the Emirates oil giant’s OPEC exit ambitions, warrants close monitoring. The divergence between geopolitical risk signals and market pricing highlights an opportunity to hedge against sudden spikes in oil prices or volatility. Meanwhile, robust EU gas storage and regional heat-driven demand in North America support stability in gas markets, offsetting some geopolitical risk spillover. Traders should maintain a cautious stance, focusing on event-driven triggers in the Middle East and structural OPEC developments for directional cues.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.51% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.60% between recorded quotes; GERI 19 → 21. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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