GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
19 / 100
LOW1 day 4 · 7 day -1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Attack on Refinery: GERI 19 | Energy Risk Aug 13 — August 13, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 19 (LOW) on 2026-08-12. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 19; 1-day change: 4.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-12.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€60.20/MWh
-2.35%
Source date: 2026-08-12
VIX
14.55 points
-0.73 points
Source date: 2026-08-12
Brent Crude
$88.33/bbl
-1.08%
Source date: 2026-08-12
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.02%
Source date: 2026-08-12
EU Gas Storage
59.90%
+0.60 pp
Source date: 2026-08-12
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack on Refinery in Libya Highlights Wider Risks - Energy Intelligence | 5 | 19.8% | Libya & Algeria Oil/Gas |
| Drone attacks on energy infrastructure deepen Libya’s energy crisis | 5 | 19.9% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk tone maintained despite elevated geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion potential, driven by concentrated war-related alerts in North Africa, Middle East, and Europe. Regional conflicts show signs of spillover but limited immediate systemic escalation.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 19
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- North Africa to Europe: Refinery attacks in Libya and diesel supply crunch in Europe indicate direct energy supply risk spillover, pressuring European diesel markets.
- Middle East to Global: Saudi Aramco refinery strike and Houthi threats increase Middle East risk premium, influencing global oil price volatility and tanker rates.
- Russia to Europe: Limited data on Russian missile launches and Caspian tensions add uncertainty but have not triggered broad market risk repricing.
- Black Sea: Record oil tanker rates due to drone attacks reflect logistical bottlenecks, potentially impacting European and Asian crude flows.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €60.20/MWh | -2.35% |
| VIX | 14.55 points | -0.73 points |
| Brent Crude | $88.33/bbl | -1.08% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.02% |
| EU Gas Storage | 59.90% | +0.60 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Elevated war risk alerts (EERI Locked — free account) contrast with declining Brent and TTF prices and lower VIX, suggesting market is pricing in resilience or offsetting factors such as inventory buffers and demand concerns.
- Potential Underpricing of War Risk: Given multiple 5/5 war alerts, current energy prices may understate near-term supply disruption risk, especially diesel markets in Europe.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk tone, the energy sector faces concentrated geopolitical threats primarily from Middle East and North Africa conflicts. The sharp rise in event risk (EERI Locked — free account) contrasts with subdued market volatility and declining energy prices, signaling a potential disconnect. Traders should be alert to refining sector vulnerabilities, particularly diesel supply in Europe, and monitor Black Sea shipping disruptions that could constrain crude flows. The probability of escalation remains moderate, with key triggers including further refinery attacks or expanded conflict zones. Hedging strategies may consider diesel market exposure and geopolitical risk premiums in crude pricing.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.09% between recorded quotes; TTF -2.35% between recorded quotes; GERI 15 → 19. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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