GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
15 / 100
LOW1 day -5 · 7 day -6
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
U.S. Fires to: GERI 15 | Energy Risk Aug 12 — August 12, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 15 (LOW) on 2026-08-11. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 15; 1-day change: -5.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-11.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€61.65/MWh
-0.29%
Source date: 2026-08-11
VIX
15.28 points
-0.18 points
Source date: 2026-08-11
Brent Crude
$89.30/bbl
+1.75%
Source date: 2026-08-11
EUR/USD
1.1546 USD/EUR
-0.09%
Source date: 2026-08-11
EU Gas Storage
59.30%
-0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-08-11
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Fires to Disable Panama-Flag Ship Accused of Violating Iran Blockade | 5 | 15.4% | MarineLink / Maritime Reporter |
| CENTCOM reports disabling ship that attempted to breach blockade on Iran | 5 | 12.1% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Limited contagion; Middle East and Black Sea remain primary risk epicenters with moderate spillover to Europe via trade and energy routes.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 15
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Black Sea: High spillover from naval conflict and blockade enforcement causing elevated risk in shipping lanes.
- Middle East → Europe: Moderate spillover via energy supply chains, notably through the Strait of Hormuz affecting Brent prices.
- Russia → Europe: Limited risk transmission despite Russian strikes near Kiev; European gas storage and prices stable.
- North Africa → Energy Investment: Warning signals from Nigerian oil sector policy changes may reduce upstream investment, indirectly affecting global supply.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €61.65/MWh | -0.29% |
| VIX | 15.28 points | -0.18 points |
| Brent Crude | $89.30/bbl | +1.75% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1546 USD/EUR | -0.09% |
| EU Gas Storage | 59.30% | -0.10 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Brent Pricing: Elevated Middle East conflict alerts suggest higher risk premium, yet Brent at $89.3 is below the $100 level forecast in alerts. Indicates market is pricing in some risk mitigation or short-term containment.
- EERI vs TTF Gas: Despite EERI drop, TTF gas prices remain stable, signaling divergence between perceived economic risk and actual market pricing, likely due to strong storage buffers.
- GERI vs VIX: GERI decline contrasts with stable VIX around 15, showing equity volatility is not fully aligned with energy risk signals.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a stabilizing risk tone indicated by declining GERI and EERI indices, the energy market remains vulnerable to geopolitical flashpoints, particularly in the Middle East. The recent disabling of a Panama-flagged ship attempting to breach the Iran blockade underscores persistent volatility risks in key shipping lanes, supporting Brent’s upward price pressure (Locked — free account). European gas markets show resilience, aided by robust storage at Locked — free account, which tempers price responses (Locked — free account). Industrial sectors in Europe face headwinds from Rhine water level disruptions, posing a tangible risk to supply chains and output. The divergence between risk indices and market pricing suggests cautious optimism, but the probability of escalation remains material (~Locked — free account), warranting close monitoring of naval activity and regional military developments. Portfolio strategies should balance exposure to oil price spikes against stable gas market fundamentals and European industrial risk factors.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +1.64% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.29% between recorded quotes; GERI 20 → 15. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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