GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
20 / 100
LOW1 day -2 · 7 day -1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Global Diesel Crunch: GERI 20 | Energy Risk Aug 11 — August 11, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 20 (LOW) on 2026-08-10. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 20; 1-day change: -2.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-10.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€61.83/MWh
+9.92%
Source date: 2026-08-10
VIX
15.46 points
+0.56 points
Source date: 2026-08-10
Brent Crude
$87.86/bbl
+4.06%
Source date: 2026-08-10
EUR/USD
1.1556 USD/EUR
-0.05%
Source date: 2026-08-10
EU Gas Storage
59.40%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-08-10
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Diesel Crunch Worsens Ahead of Peak Winter Demand | 5 | 20.8% | OilPrice.com |
| Europe braces for another heatwave after record-breaking temperatures | 5 | 1.9% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone with mixed signals; geopolitical and energy supply risks remain elevated but partially offset by improving local conditions.
- Contagion Status: High cross-regional contagion potential, driven by Middle East conflict risks and European energy stress.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 20
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Heightened risk from Iran-Saudi tensions and Yemen conflict is driving energy security concerns in Europe, exacerbating diesel crunch and heating fuel demand ahead of winter.
- Europe → Global: European heatwave and diesel shortage risks are pressuring global diesel markets, pushing Brent crude +4.06% and TTF gas +9.92%.
- Russia → Global: Political instability in Colombia and US-Russia tensions maintain baseline geopolitical volatility, contributing to risk premiums in energy markets.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €61.83/MWh | +9.92% |
| VIX | 15.46 points | +0.56 points |
| Brent Crude | $87.86/bbl | +4.06% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1556 USD/EUR | -0.05% |
| EU Gas Storage | 59.40% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- EERI surged Locked — free account points, indicating sharp risk escalation, yet Brent crude and TTF gas price increases (Locked — free account, Locked — free account) are somewhat muted relative to risk spike magnitude, suggesting potential underpricing of geopolitical risk in energy markets.
- VIX increase (+0.56) is modest, indicating equity markets are not fully pricing in elevated geopolitical tensions.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ Custom Algorithms identify a complex risk environment where geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and energy supply constraints in Europe are driving a sharp increase in energy-related risk indices, despite a modest easing in global energy risk. The significant jump in EERI (Locked — free account) signals that market participants should prepare for potential volatility spikes, particularly in gas and diesel markets. The current price moves in Brent and TTF gas, while notable, may lag the underlying risk escalation, presenting tactical opportunities for risk-adjusted positioning. Monitoring Iraq’s export stability and European diesel supply will be critical near-term risk mitigants. The risk of escalation remains material, with a Locked — free account probability of entering a high-conflict regime in the next two weeks, warranting caution in portfolio exposures sensitive to Middle East disruptions.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +4.09% between recorded quotes; TTF +9.92% between recorded quotes; GERI 22 → 20. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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