GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
22 / 100
MODERATE1 day 2 · 7 day 2
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Union reports 108: GERI 22 | Energy Risk Aug 10 — August 10, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 22 (MODERATE) on 2026-08-09. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 22; 1-day change: 2.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-09.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€56.25/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-07
VIX
14.90 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-07
Brent Crude
$84.41/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-07
EUR/USD
1.1562 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-07
EU Gas Storage
59.10%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-08-09
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union reports 108 attacks on Palestinian journalists in July | 5 | 1.9% | Al Jazeera News |
| Why Trump’s Waiver of the Jones Act Is Unlikely To Lower Gas Prices | 5 | 20.9% | OilPrice.com |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Regime: Low risk environment persists with GERI at 22 (+2), indicating a slight uptick in geopolitical tension but no regime shift.
- Contagion Status: Minimal contagion; EERI dropped by Locked — free account to Locked — free account, reflecting reduced economic risk spillover despite geopolitical flare-ups.
- Market Volatility: VIX down slightly to 14.9, confirming subdued equity market volatility amid geopolitical noise.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 22
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: High Middle East risk (EGSI-M Locked — free account) is not currently transmitting to Europe; European risk indices remain stable.
- Europe → Global: Russia-Ukraine tensions flagged but no increase in European geopolitical risk index, suggesting limited spillover to global markets.
- Energy Markets: Brent and TTF gas prices are up (+1.03%, +1.26%), indicating market sensitivity to Middle East disruptions but no systemic shock.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €56.25/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 14.90 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $84.41/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1562 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 59.10% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Elevated Middle East risk (alerts 5/5) contrasts with modest price increases in Brent and TTF gas, indicating partial market discounting of conflict escalation.
- VIX and EUR/USD show minimal reaction, suggesting market confidence in short-term containment of geopolitical shocks.
- Potential divergence may signal underpricing of risk if Houthi or Iran attacks intensify.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Middle East geopolitical tensions remain the primary driver of energy risk, with Houthi strikes and Iran-US standoff elevating the EGSI-M to near Locked — free account. Despite this, the overall risk regime remains low, supported by stable economic indicators and modest market reactions. Brent and TTF gas prices are responding to supply concerns but have not yet priced in a full-scale disruption. The low VIX and steady EUR/USD suggest market confidence in short-term containment. However, the probability of regime shift to Moderate risk within the next week is non-negligible, warranting close monitoring of conflict escalation and shipping lane security. Energy portfolios should prepare for possible price volatility spikes, particularly in crude and LNG markets, while storage buffers provide some resilience.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +2.46% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.26% between recorded quotes; GERI 20 → 22. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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