GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
20 / 100
LOW1 day -1 · 7 day 0
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
The energy system: GERI 20 | Energy Risk Aug 9 — August 09, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 20 (LOW) on 2026-08-08. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 20; 1-day change: -1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-08.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€55.55/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-07
VIX
14.90 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-07
Brent Crude
$82.38/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-07
EUR/USD
1.1562 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-08-07
EU Gas Storage
58.80%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-08-08
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone confirmed by marginal decline in GERI (Locked — free account) and sharp drop in EERI (Locked — free account).
- Contagion Status: War-related geopolitical tensions persist across Europe and Middle East but limited immediate spillover to global energy prices.
- Summary: Elevated geopolitical risk in Europe (Ukraine conflict) and Middle East (Hormuz strikes) remains contained without triggering systemic energy market disruptions.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 20
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Europe: Continued war-related risk from Ukraine with multiple attacks and warnings of harsh winter, but no immediate supply outages, limiting contagion to broader European energy markets.
- Middle East: Persistent risk from maritime attacks and Yemen conflict, causing jet fuel supply tension and Turkey’s Black Sea restrictions, which may indirectly pressure global shipping routes.
- Asia: Sanctions escalation (US Senate Russia sanctions, India tariff threat) adds policy risk but limited immediate energy market impact.
- Spillover: Risk concentrated regionally; no significant contagion to global energy prices evident yet.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €55.55/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 14.90 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $82.38/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1562 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 58.80% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Despite multiple high-severity alerts (all rated 5/5), Brent crude remains flat, indicating market pricing in geopolitical risk without premium expansion.
- European gas prices slightly down, diverging from war alerts, reflecting confidence in storage and supply management.
- VIX decline suggests broader market risk appetite is steady, not spiking on geopolitical news.
- Interpretation: Market is pricing in ongoing conflict as baseline; risk signals elevated but not escalating into price shocks.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ analysis confirms a stabilizing risk environment despite multiple high-severity geopolitical alerts. Market pricing reflects a baseline acceptance of ongoing conflicts without immediate escalation into supply shocks or price volatility. European gas storage increases and government interventions provide resilience ahead of winter demand. However, persistent Middle East maritime tensions and sanctions risks warrant close monitoring for potential spillover into energy logistics and trade flows. Traders should maintain a cautious stance with hedges aligned to potential escalation scenarios while capitalizing on current market stability.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.25% between recorded quotes; GERI 21 → 20. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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