GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
24 / 100
MODERATE1 day 2 · 7 day 5
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
North Korean Missile: GERI 24 | Energy Risk Aug 6 — August 06, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 24 (MODERATE) on 2026-08-05. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 24; 1-day change: 2.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-05.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€53.94/MWh
-2.03%
Source date: 2026-08-05
VIX
15.81 points
-0.69 points
Source date: 2026-08-05
Brent Crude
$79.33/bbl
+0.37%
Source date: 2026-08-05
EUR/USD
1.1507 USD/EUR
-0.32%
Source date: 2026-08-04
EU Gas Storage
57.90%
+0.00 pp
Source date: 2026-08-05
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Korean Missile Unit Deployed In Russia To Strike Ukraine: Report - NDTV | 5 | 5.2% | Ukraine Energy & Infrastructure |
| Ferrexpo halts Ukraine operations on war risk as financial woes linger - Reuters | 5 | 3.5% | Ukraine Energy & Infrastructure |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low, despite a jump in EERI (Locked — free account), indicating heightened event-driven geopolitical risk, especially in Europe and the Middle East.
- Regime Status: No defined regime currently; market volatility (VIX) decreased slightly (-0.69%), reflecting muted financial market stress.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion risk from Middle East and European conflict zones, with spillover potential into global energy markets.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 24
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Europe: North Korean missile unit deployment in Russia targeting Ukraine and Black Sea attacks amplify risk perception, pressuring commodity flows and industrial operations (e.g., Ferrexpo halt).
- Middle East: Repeated Houthi missile strikes on Saudi tankers and Hormuz trade disruptions heighten energy supply risk, with potential to disrupt LPG and crude flows.
- Asia: Malaysia’s stance on Rohingya refugees adds humanitarian dimension but limited direct market impact.
- Spillover: Elevated risk in Europe and the Middle East is likely to propagate through global energy supply chains, particularly affecting LNG and oil shipping routes.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €53.94/MWh | -2.03% |
| VIX | 15.81 points | -0.69 points |
| Brent Crude | $79.33/bbl | +0.37% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1507 USD/EUR | -0.32% |
| EU Gas Storage | 57.90% | +0.00 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: EERI surged Locked — free account, but Brent crude only Locked — free account and TTF gas Locked — free account, indicating a divergence where market prices have not fully reacted to escalating geopolitical risk.
- Interpretation: Market participants may be discounting short-term conflict escalation or relying on existing storage buffers and alternative supply routes.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk tone, the sharp rise in event-driven geopolitical risk (EERI Locked — free account) signals emerging hotspots in Europe and the Middle East that have not yet fully translated into market price volatility or supply disruptions. The divergence between risk signals and asset price moves suggests market complacency or confidence in current supply buffers, particularly EU gas storage stability. However, the probability of regime shift toward heightened geopolitical risk is non-negligible (Locked — free account), warranting close monitoring of conflict escalation in the Black Sea and Middle East tanker routes. Traders should prepare for potential volatility spikes and supply chain constraints, especially in LNG and industrial metals sectors, while leveraging the current low VIX environment for tactical positioning.
Key Metrics:
- EERI Locked — free account (event risk surge)
- Brent +0.37% (limited price reaction)
- TTF Gas -2.03% (price decline amid risk)
- EU Gas Storage steady at 57.9%
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.60% between recorded quotes; TTF -2.03% between recorded quotes; GERI 22 → 24. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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