GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
22 / 100
MODERATE1 day 6 · 7 day 3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Saudi Aramco Profits: GERI 22 | Energy Risk Aug 5 — August 05, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 22 (MODERATE) on 2026-08-04. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 22; 1-day change: 6.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-04.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€55.06/MWh
-5.35%
Source date: 2026-08-04
VIX
16.50 points
+0.64 points
Source date: 2026-08-04
Brent Crude
$79.81/bbl
-5.40%
Source date: 2026-08-04
EUR/USD
1.1507 USD/EUR
-0.32%
Source date: 2026-08-04
EU Gas Storage
57.90%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-08-04
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Aramco Profits Surge 44 Percent As Middle East Conflict Reshapes Global Energy Markets - streamlinefeed.co.ke | 5 | 11.4% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| Indian Cargo Vessel Sunk by Bomb-Boat Attack Off Hodeidah, 14 Rescued | 5 | 10.9% | Maritime Executive |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low
- Regime: Transitional, no clear regime classification yet
- Contagion Status: Moderate regional contagion, primarily Middle East to global energy markets
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 22
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East Conflict: Primary driver of risk increase (+6 in GERI), pushing Brent volatility and impacting global supply chains
- Black Sea Region: Supply disruptions from drone attacks and shipping halts add localized risk but limited contagion beyond regional trade routes
- Asia: Geopolitical tensions (China-Turkey, Indian vessel attack) contribute to risk but have not materially affected global energy prices yet
- South America: Argentina strike impacts grain exports, indirectly pressuring energy-linked commodity logistics
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €55.06/MWh | -5.35% |
| VIX | 16.50 points | +0.64 points |
| Brent Crude | $79.81/bbl | -5.40% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1507 USD/EUR | -0.32% |
| EU Gas Storage | 57.90% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signals vs Market Pricing:
- Despite high Middle East conflict alerts and Saudi Aramco profit surges, Brent crude fell 5.4%, indicating market may be pricing in earlier risk or anticipating supply adjustments from non-OPEC sources (e.g., Brazil’s record output).
- EERI dropped sharply (Locked — free account), signaling economic risk easing, contrasting with geopolitical alerts, suggesting market focus on economic fundamentals over conflict escalation.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Middle East conflict remains the dominant geopolitical risk driver, underpinning elevated GERI despite falling economic risk metrics. Market pricing in Brent crude suggests partial risk discounting, likely due to increased non-OPEC supply and EU gas storage resilience. The divergence between rising geopolitical alerts and falling economic risk index indicates a bifurcated market focus, where supply-side shocks are balanced against demand-side stability. Traders should monitor escalation probabilities closely, as a shift to a high-risk regime could rapidly reprice energy assets. Black Sea and South American disruptions add regional risk layers but currently exert limited global contagion. Overall, a cautious stance with readiness to pivot on conflict developments and supply chain signals is warranted.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -5.18% between recorded quotes; TTF -5.35% between recorded quotes; GERI 16 → 22. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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