GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
20 / 100
LOW1 day -4 · 7 day 0
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Houthis claim ‘successful’: GERI 20 | Energy Risk Aug 7 — August 07, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 20 (LOW) on 2026-08-06. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 20; 1-day change: -4.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-06.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€58.31/MWh
+8.10%
Source date: 2026-08-06
VIX
15.15 points
-0.66 points
Source date: 2026-08-06
Brent Crude
$83.08/bbl
+4.69%
Source date: 2026-08-06
EUR/USD
1.1557 USD/EUR
+0.43%
Source date: 2026-08-06
EU Gas Storage
58.30%
+0.40 pp
Source date: 2026-08-06
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone despite elevated geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Regional Middle East conflict risk contained but with potential spillover to global energy markets.
- Key Drivers: Escalating Houthi missile strikes on Saudi oil tankers in Gulf of Aden and Red Sea, persistent Russia-Ukraine conflict, and emerging concerns over winter natural gas supply in North America.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 20
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global Energy Markets: Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers threaten oil shipping lanes, pushing Brent crude +4.69%.
- Russia-Ukraine Conflict → European Energy: Continued attacks on Belgorod and Zaporozhye NPP maintain risk premium on EU gas, supporting TTF +8.10%.
- North America → Global Gas Markets: Disappointing power burn signals potential winter supply risk, adding upward pressure on gas prices.
- Cross-Region Feedback: Middle East supply risk and Russian conflict reinforce each other, sustaining elevated energy price volatility.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €58.31/MWh | +8.10% |
| VIX | 15.15 points | -0.66 points |
| Brent Crude | $83.08/bbl | +4.69% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1557 USD/EUR | +0.43% |
| EU Gas Storage | 58.30% | +0.40 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Elevated geopolitical risk in Middle East and Russia contrasts with moderate VIX decline, indicating market complacency in equity volatility despite energy market stress.
- Gas Market: TTF price surge (+8.1%) outpaces storage build (+0.4%), highlighting market concern over winter supply despite physical inventory gains.
- Oil Market: Brent’s +4.69% gain aligns with geopolitical risk, confirming price sensitivity to tanker strike events.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The current stabilizing risk tone masks underlying elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia that continue to exert upward pressure on energy prices. The repeated Houthi missile strikes on Saudi oil tankers have sustained Brent crude gains near +5%, reflecting persistent supply disruption risk in critical shipping lanes. Concurrently, the Russia-Ukraine conflict maintains a premium on European gas prices, with TTF surging over 8% amid concerns of winter supply shortfalls exacerbated by disappointing North American power burn. Market volatility (VIX) remains subdued, indicating a divergence between equity market complacency and energy market stress. The probability of escalation remains significant, with a 25-30% chance of
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +4.73% between recorded quotes; TTF +8.10% between recorded quotes; GERI 24 → 20. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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