GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
16 / 100
LOW1 day -1 · 7 day -4
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Big Oil Warns: GERI 16 | Energy Risk Aug 4 — August 04, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 16 (LOW) on 2026-08-03. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 16; 1-day change: -1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-03.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€58.17/MWh
+2.68%
Source date: 2026-08-03
VIX
15.86 points
-0.13 points
Source date: 2026-08-03
Brent Crude
$84.17/bbl
+0.50%
Source date: 2026-08-03
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
+0.14%
Source date: 2026-08-03
EU Gas Storage
57.70%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-08-03
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Big Oil Warns Global Fuel Stocks Are Running Dangerously Low | 5 | 34.4% | OilPrice.com |
| Iran drops plans to strike Ukraine after its apology for attack on ship — TV | 5 | 5.3% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone confirmed by marginal GERI decline (Locked — free account) despite sharp EERI spike (Locked — free account).
- Contagion Status: Elevated geopolitical tensions in Middle East and Europe driving risk transmission, but global energy supply resilience (Saudi exports up) contains broader contagion.
- Summary: Market is digesting heightened geopolitical conflict and supply disruptions amid underlying stabilization signals.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 16
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: High spillover from Houthi threats and tanker rerouting increases global shipping risk premiums, pushing Brent +0.50%.
- Europe → Global: Ukraine conflict and drone attacks elevate European risk perception, impacting wheat and energy logistics, reflected in EERI surge.
- US → Middle East/Global: Political pressure on oil companies (Trump’s order) adds uncertainty to supply-demand dynamics, increasing volatility potential.
- Net Effect: Risk contagion remains regionally contained but with persistent upward pressure on energy prices and supply chain risk.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €58.17/MWh | +2.68% |
| VIX | 15.86 points | -0.13 points |
| Brent Crude | $84.17/bbl | +0.50% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | +0.14% |
| EU Gas Storage | 57.70% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- EERI spike (Locked — free account) not fully reflected in VIX (down Locked — free account), indicating potential underpricing of geopolitical risk in equity volatility.
- Brent and TTF gas price increases moderate relative to alert severity, suggesting market confidence in supply mitigation (Saudi exports, EU storage).
- EUR/USD strength contrasts with regional conflict, possibly reflecting safe-haven flows or monetary policy differentials.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ analysis highlights a complex risk environment where geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions elevate energy market risk, yet underlying supply resilience and partial conflict de-escalations stabilize the broader risk regime. Traders should weigh the asymmetric risk of sudden supply shocks against current market complacency reflected in subdued volatility measures. Strategic positioning in LNG and power sectors is advisable, with close attention to Middle East shipping developments and US political interventions that could rapidly shift risk regimes. The divergence between risk alerts and market pricing suggests potential for volatility repricing in the near term.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.56% between recorded quotes; TTF +2.68% between recorded quotes; GERI 17 → 16. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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