GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
17 / 100
LOW1 day 0 · 7 day -3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Saudi Pushes For: GERI 17 | Energy Risk Aug 3 — August 03, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 17 (LOW) on 2026-08-02. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 17; 1-day change: 0.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-02.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€56.65/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-31
VIX
15.99 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-31
Brent Crude
$83.70/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-31
EUR/USD
1.1527 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-31
EU Gas Storage
57.40%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-08-02
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Pushes For De-Escalation As Iran Issues Fresh Warning To The US | WATCH - The Times of India | 5 | 12.1% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| Power outages in Ukraine due to Russian attacks - finway.com.ua | 5 | 12.6% | Ukraine Energy & Infrastructure |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Current Risk Tone: Low
- Regime: Stable, no regime classification assigned yet
- Contagion Status: Moderate regional contagion from Middle East conflicts to Europe via energy markets
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 17
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: High conflict intensity with Saudi-Iran tensions, drone strikes on Saudi Aramco, and Red Sea blockade threats. This sustains elevated regional risk and supply disruption concerns.
- Europe: Impacted by Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power infrastructure and civilian casualties, causing humanitarian and operational strain.
- Cross-Region Spillover: Middle East tensions are pressuring global oil markets, while European conflict drives gas market volatility. The spillover is contained but persistent, reflected in moderate risk indices and price moves.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €56.65/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 15.99 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $83.70/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1527 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 57.40% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Despite high alert scores (5/5) on war and supply disruption, Brent and TTF gas prices have fallen sharply (~8% and ~4%, respectively). This divergence suggests markets may be pricing in either:
- Short-term demand destruction due to conflict-related economic impacts, or
- Anticipation of OPEC+ supply hikes (188,000 bpd approved) offsetting supply risks.
- Volatility Index (VIX) decline supports market complacency or confidence in conflict de-escalation.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite multiple high-severity alerts reflecting ongoing Middle East conflict and European war impacts, market prices for Brent crude and TTF gas have declined sharply, signaling market expectations of either near-term demand reduction or offsetting supply increases (notably OPEC+ output hike). The drop in EERI by Locked — free account points suggests easing event-driven risk perception, while GERI remains stable, indicating persistent baseline geopolitical tension. The low VIX and strengthening EUR/USD further confirm a market environment of subdued volatility and cautious optimism. However, the elevated EGSI-M and persistent conflict alerts warrant close monitoring for potential rapid regime shifts, especially if the Red Sea blockade threat materializes or if Middle East hostilities escalate. Energy storage levels in Europe provide a buffer, mitigating immediate supply shock risks. Traders should balance short-term bearish price signals with the potential for sudden risk spikes, maintaining flexibility in hedging and exposure.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -8.06% between recorded quotes; TTF -4.03% between recorded quotes; GERI 17 → 17. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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