GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
17 / 100
LOW1 day 1 · 7 day -4
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Suriname's $26 Billion: GERI 17 | Energy Risk Aug 2 — August 02, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 17 (LOW) on 2026-08-01. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 17; 1-day change: 1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-01.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€59.03/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-31
VIX
15.99 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-31
Brent Crude
$91.04/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-31
EUR/USD
1.1527 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-31
EU Gas Storage
57.10%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-08-01
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suriname's $26 Billion Oil Bet Is Finally Paying Off | 5 | 42.5% | OilPrice.com |
| At least 9 people killed in Russian missile attacks on Kyiv | 5 | 5.1% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low, stable from prior day despite high-impact geopolitical alerts.
- Regime: No defined regime currently; market exhibits muted volatility.
- Contagion Status: Limited contagion; regional conflicts raise localized risk but have not escalated to systemic energy market disruptions.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 17
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global Energy Markets: Elevated risk due to Saudi oil export threats and Iran’s target list increases potential supply disruption risk.
- Black Sea → European Energy Security: Missile attacks on Kyiv raise concerns over pipeline and transit security but limited immediate impact on gas flows.
- North Africa → Maritime Security: Drone strike near Suez Canal introduces risk to critical shipping lanes, potentially affecting LNG and crude transport.
- Spillover magnitude: Moderate; energy markets priced in some risk, but no immediate supply shocks observed.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €59.03/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 15.99 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $91.04/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1527 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 57.10% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signals vs Market Pricing: Elevated geopolitical risk indices contrast with flat energy prices and declining volatility index.
- Interpretation: Market is discounting immediate supply shocks, possibly due to strategic reserves, alternative supply routes, or lack of escalation. This divergence suggests potential latent risk if conflicts intensify.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk tone and stable energy prices, the geopolitical environment remains fragile with multiple high-impact alerts centered on the Middle East and maritime chokepoints. The market currently prices limited immediate supply disruption, but the risk of escalation—particularly involving Saudi oil exports and Red Sea security—warrants close monitoring. The divergence between elevated risk indices and flat prices suggests latent risk not yet reflected in energy markets. Traders should maintain vigilance on Middle East conflict developments and maritime security, as these factors have the greatest potential to shift the regime towards higher volatility and price spikes. Asian power markets are already reacting to Hormuz blockade threats, signaling regional sensitivity to supply constraints. Strategic positioning should balance current stability with preparedness for rapid risk shifts.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.00% between recorded quotes; GERI 16 → 17. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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