GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
16 / 100
LOW1 day -9 · 7 day -8
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Abqaiq Is a: GERI 16 | Energy Risk Aug 1 — August 01, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 16 (LOW) on 2026-07-31. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 16; 1-day change: -9.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-31.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€59.03/MWh
+2.23%
Source date: 2026-07-31
VIX
15.99 points
-1.10 points
Source date: 2026-07-31
Brent Crude
$91.04/bbl
+4.63%
Source date: 2026-07-31
EUR/USD
1.1527 USD/EUR
+0.53%
Source date: 2026-07-31
EU Gas Storage
56.90%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-07-31
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone confirmed by sharp declines in geopolitical risk indices.
- Contagion Status: Regional tensions persist but show limited cross-regional spillover, indicating contained contagion risk.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 16
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: Primary risk source with Abqaiq warnings and resumed UAE-Iran trade reducing immediate escalation risk.
- Black Sea: Elevated risk from Ukraine’s drone strikes on Lukoil refinery and Russian grain security threats, but limited spillover to broader European energy markets.
- Europe: Sanctions risk elevated but contained; Trump’s trade threat to Spain adds localized energy security concerns.
- Global: War-related humanitarian crises (e.g., DR Congo Ebola) add systemic risk but limited direct energy market contagion.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €59.03/MWh | +2.23% |
| VIX | 15.99 points | -1.10 points |
| Brent Crude | $91.04/bbl | +4.63% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1527 USD/EUR | +0.53% |
| EU Gas Storage | 56.90% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Brent crude price up Locked — free account despite GERI and EERI declines suggests market may be pricing in supply-side risks not fully captured by risk indices.
- TTF gas price increase aligns with moderate risk but may be slightly elevated relative to stable EU storage levels.
- VIX decline confirms market complacency in volatility despite geopolitical alerts, indicating a divergence between headline risk and market fear.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ algorithms identify a stabilizing geopolitical risk environment with localized hotspots in the Middle East and Black Sea regions. Despite headline war and sanction alerts, risk indices have retraced sharply, reflecting market confidence in containment and resumed trade flows. However, the divergence between falling risk indices and rising oil and gas prices signals underlying supply-side concerns not fully captured by risk sentiment metrics. Traders should monitor key geopolitical flashpoints—particularly Abqaiq and Black Sea developments—as these hold the highest potential to disrupt energy markets. The current regime favors cautious positioning with readiness to adjust for volatility spikes driven by escalation or sanction shocks.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +4.27% between recorded quotes; TTF +2.23% between recorded quotes; GERI 25 → 16. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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