GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
25 / 100
MODERATE1 day 2 · 7 day -3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Iran launches renewed: GERI 25 | Energy Risk Jul 31 — July 31, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 25 (MODERATE) on 2026-07-30. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 25; 1-day change: 2.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-30.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€57.74/MWh
-4.86%
Source date: 2026-07-30
VIX
17.09 points
-3.57 points
Source date: 2026-07-30
Brent Crude
$87.31/bbl
-0.91%
Source date: 2026-07-30
EUR/USD
1.1467 USD/EUR
+0.71%
Source date: 2026-07-30
EU Gas Storage
56.60%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-07-30
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran launches renewed missile attacks as US and Saudis strike Tehran-backed militias in Iraq - Sentinel and Enterprise | 5 | 9.4% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| Report: Houthi Strike Took Saudi Refinery Offline Through Mid-August | 5 | 26.5% | Maritime Executive |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk tone maintained despite geopolitical escalations.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion risk within Middle East energy and geopolitical sectors; limited spillover to Europe and global markets.
- Key Drivers: Heightened Middle East conflict risk (Iran-Saudi tensions, Houthi attacks), energy infrastructure vulnerabilities, and European energy concerns.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 25
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Elevated risk transmission via energy supply chains due to refinery shutdowns and Suez Canal security threats.
- Middle East → Global Markets: Limited direct contagion; Brent crude price down 0.91% suggests market discounting short-term disruptions.
- Europe: Rising energy crisis concerns (per Kerry’s statement) create latent risk but no immediate market stress; EU gas storage slightly up (+0.2%) supports supply buffer.
- North Africa: Drone strikes near Suez increase regional risk but not yet triggering broader market moves.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €57.74/MWh | -4.86% |
| VIX | 17.09 points | -3.57 points |
| Brent Crude | $87.31/bbl | -0.91% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1467 USD/EUR | +0.71% |
| EU Gas Storage | 56.60% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Strong risk signals from Middle East conflict and energy infrastructure attacks contrast with declining Brent and TTF prices and falling VIX.
- Market appears to price in short-lived disruptions, relying on existing storage and alternative supply routes.
- Suggests a divergence where risk indices flag heightened threat but market pricing remains subdued.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ algorithms identify a disconnect between heightened geopolitical and energy infrastructure risks in the Middle East and subdued market price reactions. This suggests market confidence in supply buffers and alternative routes but flags vulnerability to rapid regime shifts should conflict escalate or refinery outages persist. The low overall risk tone masks pockets of concentrated risk in Middle East energy exports and maritime chokepoints. Traders should monitor risk signal divergence and key watchlist indicators for early signs of regime transition, particularly given the 35% probability of medium risk regime within two weeks. Defensive positioning in power and LNG sectors, alongside close tracking of refinery repair progress and Suez security, is recommended.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.91% between recorded quotes; TTF -4.86% between recorded quotes; GERI 23 → 25. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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