GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
23 / 100
MODERATE1 day 5 · 7 day -8
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
EU Implements New: GERI 23 | Energy Risk Jul 30 — July 30, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 23 (MODERATE) on 2026-07-29. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 23; 1-day change: 5.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-29.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€60.69/MWh
+3.23%
Source date: 2026-07-29
VIX
20.66 points
+2.45 points
Source date: 2026-07-29
Brent Crude
$88.11/bbl
+0.73%
Source date: 2026-07-29
EUR/USD
1.1387 USD/EUR
+0.15%
Source date: 2026-07-29
EU Gas Storage
56.40%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-07-29
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU Implements New Critical Infrastructure Risk System | 5 | 3.9% | Maritime Executive |
| Trump says no plans to end Iran war because of strikes on US bases | 5 | 4.4% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk environment sustained despite geopolitical escalations.
- Contagion Status: Elevated cross-regional tensions, but limited immediate contagion to global markets.
- Key Drivers: Geopolitical conflict in Middle East and Europe, energy infrastructure attacks, and military escalations.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 23
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Missile attacks and Iran-US-Saudi tensions increase risk spillover to European energy security, especially via Mediterranean LNG routes.
- Europe → Global: Ukraine’s missile shortages and requests for Patriot interceptors signal potential escalation affecting NATO and global energy supply chains.
- North Africa → Global: Drone strike on Egypt LNG terminal introduces risk to Mediterranean LNG exports, with potential knock-on effects on global gas markets.
- Africa (Kenya) → Regional: Al-Shabab ambush raises localized security risk but limited global impact.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD (24h moves)
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €60.69/MWh | +3.23% |
| VIX | 20.66 points | +2.45 points |
| Brent Crude | $88.11/bbl | +0.73% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1387 USD/EUR | +0.15% |
| EU Gas Storage | 56.40% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Energy risk indices up 20-30% in 24h, while Brent and TTF gas prices show moderate increases (under 4%).
- VIX increase aligns with risk indices, indicating market recognition of geopolitical risk.
- Slight undervaluation of risk in crude and gas prices suggests potential for further price adjustments if conflict escalates.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk regime, the recent surge in geopolitical alerts—particularly the expansion of Middle East hostilities into critical energy infrastructure and Europe’s missile defense shortages—introduces asymmetric downside risk to energy markets. The moderate price response in Brent and TTF gas suggests markets are pricing in some but not all of the risk premium. The elevated EERI increase (Locked — free account points) underscores war-related economic impacts are intensifying, especially in Europe. Traders should monitor the interplay between Middle East conflict dynamics and European winter preparedness closely, as these factors will likely dictate near-term volatility and directional trends in energy prices. The probability of regime transition to medium risk is material, warranting proactive risk management and scenario planning.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +3.03% between recorded quotes; TTF +3.23% between recorded quotes; GERI 18 → 23. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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